RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Encouraging Well Although they have different growth rates, debt burdens and ARO costs, I find it strange just how close to 13K BOE/d YGR, BNE, IPO and Petrus will be at YE 2023--it's uncanny. Only OBE is significantly larger among the publicly-traded Cardium producers, and much of their growth is elsewhere.
I'm glad I'm not the only one wondering about eventual consolidation, but who is big enough to do the buying? I know Penn West/OBE tried to buy BNE in a pretty greasy under-market offer at the time, but if they're looking up North, maybe the race for growth is a smart preservation tactic for entrenched management teams. Field development would be a lot more efficient with less checkered land ownership--at least there's a bit of JV activity.
kavern23 wrote: This is the cold f*ckin reality for both bne and ygr when they produce 13,000 BOE a day for a year:
That is 13000 * 356 days = 4.628m barrels a year that always has too be replaced.
I am hoepful YGR gained 3-4m boe to 24m range when report comes out. Because of low reclamation I think YGR can run lower in proved delveloped reserves but I think it is better they are over 25m in oroducing developed reserves, before doing a divy.
But right now everone in Cardium is drilling again at some poin tin 2022 after the covid time.. Richocett on the Arc pembina land. Entrada, Orleans, Bacceliu.
At some point the basin will get overdrilled...and the cost to replace annual barrel depletion will get too expensive....and then is the point in time mergers will happen in cardium.
kavern23 wrote: This chart shows alot...even explains some of share performance over the last few years.
| | 2017 | | 2018 | 2018 | | 2019 | 2019 | | 2020 | 2020 | | 2021 | 2021 | 4 year growth |
| | Total BOE | | Oil | Total BOE | | Oil | Total BOE | | Oil | Total BOE | | Oil | Total BOE | Total BOE |
| Proved Developed(producing + developed unproducing) | Mboe | | Mboe | Mboe | | Mboe | Mboe | | Mboe | Mboe | | Mboe | Mboe | Mboe |
| Reserves | | | | | | | | | | Reserve assessment | | | | |
| YGR | 12379 | | 5941 | 25239 | | 5964 | 27694 | | 4146 | 20684 | | 4115 | 20800 | 8421 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |
| BNE | 37946 | | 22084 | 36666 | | 20800 | 35320 | | 18867 | 33025 | | 19090 | 32886 | -5060
|
kavern23 wrote: In keeping with a forest or woodlot analogy, good post btw, but isn't underspending in ARO similar to under replanting new tree's on a woodlot that has been harvested. Just hurts returns in the future.
YGR has been buying new land or woodlots. Bonterra has been just harvesting their existing woodlot.
The most critical press release for YGR coming up in my view is the next reserve report. I think that will do more then any CF or earnings number in Q4 results (i do expect excellent Q4 financially).
Proved reserves growth is going to be key number.
That will show if the lumber YGR brought to the mill is willows or nice red cedar.
I am hoping Ferrier area continues to have lots of red cedar in the woodlot.
SecondhandGnus wrote: Kavern and Rex, your interesting debate has got me thinking in terms of a forestry analogy, where woodlots are valued differently (assuming no development potential) depending on the value of the species and maturity thereof. Studwood/lumber is more valuable than pulpwood, which is worth more than firewood. High growth/value (think Montney) is worth more than lower growth (Deep Basin or untouched Cardium) vs lower flow areas with lots of existing vertical wells (older Cardium).
I'd put Yangarra in the 2nd category, while Bonterra is more in the 2nd/3rd hybrid. I own YGR since they are both priced the same, and while both can handle their debt, Bonterra's is a bit higher (and ARO is significantly so). YGR has more growth, but it has disappointed multiple times on production. BNE is on my radar because it's hated (almost a cigar-butt stock), has a corporate history of dividends (possible future re-rating when restored) and its P/CF is comically low. If YGR didn't exist I'd happily invest in it.
I think both are judged as high-risk companies, yet they are actually relatively low-risk due to their relative misprising--my guess is that YGR is a mid-2023 story, while BNE is more early 2024. Best wishes to you both, and special thanks to Kavern for your invaluable Cardium company analyses.