Whats driving OilThere are some bullish drivers for Oil like Russia cutting down supply but I don't think Russia would do this, first Oil pipelines can freeze in -40F to -50F weather if it's not kept flowing and their currency is prompted up by Oil and NG sales plus they need all the revenues that they can get to funding the war and that brings this to another point Putin has come out saying that he's ready to negotiate a ceasefire how serious he is will show in time but if I'm not mistaken Putin could be charged for war crimes bombing a mall full of women and children plus many others I'm sure but he could get out of it during talks to ceasefire as a condition or stand trial. Russia has also come out and said that they increased production in Oct and last is Oil Tanker delivery issues so Russia is a wildcard and we can only guess what they'll be doing in a month.
Now China is turning out to be a drag on Oil prices as COVID cases are being confirmed at airports receiving China flights if this is the start of the world heading towards no flights coming from China lockdown would be disastrous for Oil prices and we already know that COVID cases are spreading faster including increases in deaths so my outlook for China is not of a country heading towards full production sucking up Oil plus China cut back on Oil delivery for Dec everything I see is ailing and not heading towards recovery and China lies about anything to do with COVID hiding records plus their last manufacturing numbers were down bad.
Then the obvious, higher interest rates are slowing the global economy and it will get a lot deeper as the FED said that interest rates will stay higher for longer well into 2024 so with each passing month the economies are contracting and we have reports of countries with too much gas so that digs into Oil demand. Things are not looking bullish and recession trumps all. Looks like Oil in the $70+ could stay around.