RE:An optimist's view I would add they should announce sales for the year around the estimate they refined.
Put out another reasonable estimate for next year, be conservative. Underscore they grew revenues and expect further profitable growth. This should stop the bleeding.
Discuss rationalization plan to hit breakeven cash flow without any revenue impacts. Reset expenses rationally over 2 years. Put out wide target for where 2 year out rev, costs, profits are targeted to show they can get to profits.
Provide thorough update on trial, cancer teams rationale for new plan, if any parts of the POC were seen in data, why they think it's best way to get ot on track to try to boost efficacy.
Hard decisions, but they must address these to move on positively. If they can, regardless of whether cancer proceeds or fails, hitting cash flow breakeven and profits 2 years at least provides investing fundamentals that would point to $2-$3 price level as sales approach $100mil with net profits at bottom line. Only sure thing they can do.
SABBOBCAT wrote: Here is my list for things that would drive a best case scenario over the coming year starting with the least impactful.
- Trogarzo: IV push revives growth and increases adoption. We all know how this story has played out. Any increase in sales is great, but there shouldnt be any huge investment as evidenced by the withdrawal from Europe.
- Egrifta: Human Factors study is completed in Q1. SBLA for F8 is filed and quickly approved. Year end growth spikes as the pen injector is more user friendly.
- Egrifta NASH: Once HFS is complete and SBLA is filed, a partnership is finally announced. No partner would want to ink a deal with these clouds hanging over, hence the delay and can kicking for the last 9 months. This is one that management could pull forward (with less favorable terms), if the opportunity exists and they feel the need to do something to save their jobs and the SP.
- TH1902: a clearly communicated and data supported P1B begins re-enrolling in late Q1 with solid uptake. This plan is what will drive the near term stock performance. I believe that leadership realizes they have a finite timeline to articulate and deliver on their plans or heads will begin to roll at the AGM. For this reason I am optimistic that we will see some news start to trickle out in the coming weeks. Whether it be some additional preclinical information to support the new plan, or further information gleaned from P1, that is anyones guess, but Paul, Christian, and Phillipe all need to polish their pitch and hit the ground running in the new year.
I would love to hear where other's heads are at as we put tax loss season behind us and start to get more constructuve. We all know there are risks and bad news, but let's take an optimistic view and see what 2023 may bring.