Calculations/thoughts...*based on recent TCF news releases I've got some "guesstimates" on current/future production/revenue moving forward.
Current production 2 wells 3 + 3.3 MMcf/d 49% converted to boe/d =
roughly 260 boe/d per well to TCF
Working backwards. Using the 24 mil US after royalty number. I get roughly $37 million revenue CDN for the 2 wells per year. (24x1.14x1.35)
With 10 wells in production TCF should exit 2023 with about $15.42 million CDN monthly or $185 million annual revenue based on current pricing and production rates.
Considering TCF has zero debt and little operating costs outside of drilling. These wells should still be very profitable, even with the low production rates.
THE BIG QUESTION IS WHEN OR IF THE FLOW RATES WILL STOP BEING RESTRICTED.
If TCF can get production up to at least 4.5 MMcf/d per well which is at the low end of historical production. This would represent roughly 375 boe/d to TCF or a 44% increase in revenue.
The 2023 exit revenue would jump to $22.2 mil a month or $266 mil CDN.
The 17 wells would have about $450 mil CDN revenue annually or $37.5 million a month based on current pricing.
If flow rates stay the same I think TCF can get to $2+/share in the next 18 months.
If the restrictions come off I can see TCF easily getting to over $3+/share.