RE:RE:RE:RE:Portfolio killer Lifeboat and I have been responding on this thread to this assertion: "Long-term, it has proven a portfolio destroyer rather than the 'cash cow' it has consistently been touted to become". Had EdinColorado said that the stock had been a short term bummer, probably neither of us would have bothered responding, but we did because "Long-term" was used.
I know these days anything longer than a few seconds can seem long term, and I also know there is no precise definition of long term, but something in the order of 5 years or longer seems most appropriate to me. (Think about your long term job, long term marriage, long term home, etc.)
Just as an aside, the big 5 Canadian banks are down something like 17% this year, even though they raised their dividends on average something like 7%. (Don't shoot the messenger, I just took a quick look.) I would hardly think of them as long-term portfolio destroyers.
Now, back to Reliq. Lifeboat has done a very good job of mentioning the sorts of returns that were available over the long term. I was going to mention that, if one glances at the 2017-2022 chart, with the exception of 2018 the lows have generally been moving higher each year. This isn't as good as Lifeboat's more scientific approach. To say that anyone looking at the actual, real long term performance of the stock is trying to be deceptive is quite absurd, unless, as I mentioned before, one means short term instead of long term.
Under normal circumstances, I don't comment much on stock prices; I'm much more concerned with fundamentals. Regarding the latter, the company back in early calendar 2021 had two major issues: revenue growth wasn't showing up in the financials and collections were severely lagging. As of the latest financials, issue number one is abating nicely. Overall, that's imperfect, but it is progress and fundamental improvement. (Now, I know someone is going to point out that revenue actuals haven't correlated well with CEO estimates, to which I would reply that CEO estimates aren't fundamentals which, as I've just said, is what interests me. )
Regards and happy new year to all...
EdinColorado wrote:
Lifeboat1 wrote: This is not for the perennially bashers but for those who invest based on the facts. Here is the data if you were a true long. If you bought every month since January 2016 at the mid price for the month your average price would be .32. Not a bad return. Too bad the data doesn't support the bashers claims. They can try to say I am drinking the Kool-aid but the data speaks for its self. Reliq has been a good investment for anyone who has actually been long and had faith in the Company.
Average price buying each month at the average price for the month
1 year .63
2 year .65
3 year .49
4 year .43
5 year .49
6 year .40
7 year .32
Not the portfolio destroyer that some are claiming. In fact if you were in from the beginning had faith and bought more during the lows and held off buying on the big run ups you would be sitting pretty right now with a potential 10x increase from here.
Here is another nice set of data. Other than 2018 the stock has generally gone up declined by less than 6% yoy.
Average price
2016 .15
2017 .18
2018 .90
2019 .33
2020 .32
2021 .67
2022
Sophistry with numbers is not bought into by those who are numerate either. Most on this board know they are buying and selling now, not in 2016. The bottom line is that RHT has not proven to be a great investment long-term, but those of us holding it allow that it MIGHT become that. If I didn't believe that, why would I hold it and why would I be on this board?
The service firms are FULL of stock teasers calling out "IF you had bought this in 20XX, your stock would be worth.xxx." They of course are telling truth on their example but also employing sophistry when the service firm is trying to induce using that example as logic to convince you to try to buy what they want to sell you. Please, don't try to convince holders of RHT that it has been a great investment. In honesty is has been disappointing.
If we are investing with a brain, we are not looking at just one stock but instead are looking at WHERE the probability exists toget a good return by placing a fixed amount of money in targeted investments. Between 2016 and 2022 there were a LOT of stocks in which that amount of money would have been placed MUCH better than in RHT. I did so and I trust you did too. My losses incurred by this laggard stock were offset by better investments than RHT.
Here and now, not 2016 or 2018, is always the decision time for that allocation of $. For example, do you think precious metals are going to do better or worse than RHT in the coming year of 2023?
Most think precious metals are going to do very well. A few of us here hope that RHT is going to do as well. I actually do not know, and truth be told, I feel certain that you do not know either. At this time of here and now, I've chosen to invest a bit in RHT, more heavily in precious metals, and some other areas.