2023 OutlookLets summarize the projection @ 21,200 bpd of production net to Valeura, from documentation provided todate at this level assuming $85 US Brent which is approx todays oil price.
Current USD to CAD is approx 1.36.
We have a preclose agreement effective Exit August 2021 that post tax free cash flows will be distributed 50/50 to Mubby and VLE.
Thats at least 5 months free cash flow to the bottom line anounting to $60 m USD = $80 million in CAD .
At exit Sept 2021, we had $22.5 m USD in cash = $30 million CAD.
Thats $110 million in cash less expenses at exit January 2022...and all operating expenses of 21,200 bopd already paid including 9 infill wels .
For computational convenience, I ssume $20 m CAD will be expended during this interim hiatus which leaves $90 CAD = $1 CAD per share in working capital at exit January 2023.
OK, thats the stage we now stand on.
Looking ahead.
We have projected $30 m USD per month pre tax and $24 million per month after tax, with no consideration as to probative forward tax loss pools.
Lets take $30 m US/Month pretax which is $360 million USD equvalent to $490 million CAD.
Thats about $5.40 CAD per share..equivalent to what is termed Ebit
After tax = free cash flow to the bottom line, we will have $288 million US = $390 million CAD potential addition to the cash position.
Some of this will be spent as CAPEX in 2023 but not a lot as 9 infills have already been drilled by Mubby and any spent on Nong Yao will be late in the year.
I use $50 million CAD as easily covering 2023 CAPEX which leaves about $340 m cAD in added cash to about $90 million CADthat t we will already thave at exit January 2023 .
So thats $430 m cad in cash which I will round to $400 million in cash at exit 2023 or about $4.40 per share.
Divide by 2 to be conservative, and it still amounts to $2.20 per share in cash at exit 2023
Note also that as the new 9 infill wells kick in , production is expected to rise to 25000 bpd and to near 30,000 bpd when the KE assets kick in later in 2023.