MDA Space Ltd T.MDA

RE:RE:RE:Bought some MDA before merging with maxr ..

[zack50]

I  believe that MDA's backlog of $1.4B (Q3/22) is certainly healthy and a good indication of future revenue trends. Obviously, Q4/22 which should be available around mid-March/23, will give us more clarity on the outlook for '23 and possibly '24.

Analyst reports indicate that MDA revenue estimate for 2023 should be in the vicinity of $780M which would be up from the suggested 2022 revenue of $640M, so that's a positive.

Also, it is my understanding that any potential Lightspeed contribution has not been included in the 2023 estimate, so if there is a positive resolution regarding the  Lightspeed program, then MDA could see upside to its current prospects... bonus there for sure! However, there is a timing risk linked to the CSC and Telesat programs and this could negatively affect MDA. As I mentioned above, we should get more clarity on this with the next earnings report in March/23.

Developments related to supply chain disruption can be an issue and is mostly out of their hands but I'm sure MDA is being as pro-active as possible to mitigate any impact on their business operations.

So, what we have is...

* MDA is currently profitable and is forecast to achieve profitability in 2023.
* Earnings are forecast to grow by an average of 44.5% per year for the next 3-years.
* Debt level is low, so the company is in a good financial position.

I believe we should see a double to $13 before YE/23 and I think a fair value is in the range of $21. And, your earlier suggestion of hitting the MAXR price of $70... that would be a great windfall for sure!

JTDOUBLE wrote:

zack50 wrote:

JTDOUBLE wrote: Got bought out last week for 53 USD , sold mine at 70.30 .. long 5 years yet i was buying at around 6 bucks .. so it was worth the wait .. 

buying Mda with proceed slowly accumulating here .. hope for a least 5k shares .. 2k shares so far 3k to go..

Congrats on your great buy and sell... taking a position in the $5 - $6 range and selling @ $70.30 is indeed a great gain. I too had taken an earlier positon in MAXR but it was in the $19 - $20 range and divested at $70.54... good but not as good as your investment, lol... but I'm happy with the profit.

I also have a position in MDA and agree with you that this company has great potential... not sure that it will reach your suggested selling price of MAXR, but it should be an easy double (~$13) in the very near future, and then hopefully onward to the $20 range.

With reference to your post over on the GXE board regarding the following comment..."Mda merge with maxr and spin off mda to ottawa investors...". I'd like to note that... MDA did not merge with MAXR and spin off to Ottawa investors.
 
For clarification, MDA merged with or acquired the US-based company, DigitalGlobe, back in October, 2017. The merger/acquisition was then rebranded as MAXAR which was comprised of MDA, DigitalGlobe, Space Systems Lorel (SSL) and Radiant Solutions... all wholly-owned subsidaries of MAXAR.

In April, 2020, MAXAR sold (as opposed to a spin-off) MDA to Northern Private Capital and MDA now operates as a stand-alone company within NPC's portfolio.

And of course, now MAXR has received an offer of US$53 from Advent International, to purchase all shares of MAXR. I guess it remains to be seen if this, is in fact, the final offer to shareholders. The agreemnet includes a 60-day "go-shop" period and it's worthy to note that at least a 1/2 dozen class action firms think that the MAXR shares have a higher value than what has been offered to shareholders.

Maybe those who have not sold yet, will get a bigger windfall. 

Cheers and Happy New Year!

 

well said Zack as always ... what do you think about the 1.4 billion backlog in contracts it seems the keep increasing the these backlog every quarters .. do you think these contract will materialize as revenues given time or they still have issues with logistics and parts procurement.. 

Out of these 1.4 billion would they a least materialize these contracts by 2023-24 ??