RE:RE:RE:CZO IS NOT DE-RISKEDDon't disagree that the share price would take a hit if J&J pulled the plug, but disagree with your previous statement that the company would be finished. You need to assign probabiiities to J&J finding a substitute, testing it out and rebranding their AVEENO line. Why would they even bother? Their AVN ingredient cost annually is under $8M, that's an accounting error for this $B company and a small %age of their AVEENO sales (personal care was $7.6B in rev, don't know what portion was AVEENO with CZO's AVN). They could just buy out Ceapro for chump change rather than trying to source out a substitute natural AVN which so far only CZO has been able to produce.
In the meantime, until PGX is monetized, failures in the pipeline trials are a cash drain on the company and lack of success gives CZO it's current valuation, on the base business alone with cash drains from the studies.
The use of Y-BG/SA as a carrier was said to be a commercial solution to the OGB substrate used in the functional drink. It's up to Gilles to make a deal now, but the economic barrier should have been removed for both a functional drink / nutraceutical application. Prophet has also reported previous studies for AVN that support the likelihood of success for the AV pill.
It comes down to risk and reward. Multiple pipeline products and the costs associated with bringing them to market are supported by the base business. That's the whole picture, not just the one sided doomsday scenario some are alluding to.
Alex1726 wrote:
J&J would pull the plug if they could find a cheaper substitute to aventhramid provided by ceapro.
If you lose 50% of your business you're in big trouble , your share price will collapse.
Regarding the pipeline , there is no garantee that even one will reach the market.
OBG pill to treat cholesterol was a failure , maybe not a scientific failure but a financial one.
PGX combiened with OBG as a neutraceutical was also a failure , CZO said it was too expensive to produce on a commercial basis. Another failure.
What will we hear at the finish line for the ongoing study using AV to treat inflammation: Hem , results has shown effectiveness BUT............
People believes what they want to believe, they refuse to see the whole picture , they decided that CZO will be a success so they're 100% it will. I hope they'll succeed but i also know it could all failed.