RE:RE:JP Lachance's first newsletterhoubahop wrote: Don't know how you get FY2022 capex of $445m. Can you provide a more detailed explanation?
I do have using capex of $31m for December:
$538m in capex and $48m in acquisitions for FY2022.
in 2022, production was grown from 21'Q4 average of 97 300 boe/d to 22 'Q4 (expected) average of 105 500 boe/d.
Using base decline rate of 28% for 2022, loss production from 2021 wells is 27 300 boe/d,
giving an estimated 2022 new production of:
105 500 - (97 300 - 27 300) = 35 500 boe/d in new production.
$538m invested in capex give $15 000 / boe/d vs expected $12 000 / boe/d
(see page 43 of Nov 25th corporate presentation for forecast numbers).
Debt was forecasted to be reduced to under $725m by the end of the year.
It will turn out to be above $825m
Unfortunately, Mr. Market won't like this.
Once again, DG1 is a good contrarian indicator.
I will be patient, and wait for a bigger pullback to reenter full position. Around $10? Who knows?
Hey Houba, you're forgetting to include the decline from the 2022 production additions.
Here's my math:
Exit production in 2021: 102,000 boe/d (January 2022 President's Report)
Average production in 2022: 104,000 boe/d
Production additions: (104,000 / 0.72) - 102,000 = ~ 42,500 boe/d
Putting everything together: 102,000 boe/d base production + 42,500 boe/d new production = 144,500 boe/d
Loss of production from declines (28%): 144,500 * 0.28 =
~ 40,500 boe/d Average production in 2022: 144,500 - 40,500 = 104,000 boe/d
Therefore, with your capex estimate of $538M for 2022, which seems fair, the cost of new production was $538,000,000 / 42500 boe/d = ~ $12,650 boe/d