Theratechnologies Inc T.TH

RE:RE:RE:National Bank On Th

[Wino115]

Partnering up around a theoretically good PDC platform could be the way, and we've now seen two such partnerships pop up recently. You'd think there would be someone out there who could be interested and drive a pretty sweet deal given how 1b went. 

PWIB123 wrote: I think I read the same, generally.  Leno is repeating what Paul said in the open letter.  I think it means that the opportunity to raise money is not on the table, and all further expenses will have to take place within the context of available cash flow.  That's a pretty tight space to work within right now.  I think you're correct in terms of the real possibility TH-1902 doesn't move forward in a meaningful way anytime soon, although Paul also makes the comment that the FDA will reply within 30 days of getting responses to their questions.  That insights some sense of immediacy, but probably is more about transparency of expectations.  They may even now be completely limited to partnering.  They do leave the door open for possibility, so maybe they surprise with a NASH partnership that brings in the cash needed to keep funding TH-1902.

qwerty22 wrote:

"However, any further investments in the development of these assets will be in the context of Thera achieving positive EBITDA / CF in f2023+"

What do people think of Leno's statement here? I think you could read Paul's letter like that. It might suggest that the plan is not to start the cancer ASAP but even if they get a path worked out there might be some delay while they improve things on the commercial side. This might be a pause/temporary hold that turns into another shelved program (for the time being). Is that how people are reading this?

archeo753 wrote:

National Bank on Theratechnologies

 

04 Jan 202314:44 ET

 

02:44 PM EST, 01/04/2023 (MT Newswires) -- Theratechnologies announced a few corporate updates this morning.

National Bank's Endri Leno notes the updates with the most positives include:

Focusing on commercial operations and cost containment with the goal of 1) achieving positive EBITDA / Cash Flow in f2023+; and 2) leveraging its existing U.S. commercial infrastructure to explore the addition of commercial-stage assets.

Development of the oncology assets, which are very early stage and not aligned with TH's commercial platform, remains on hold - clinical trial paused by TH and on partial clinical hold by the FDA. The company continues to evaluate options and to answer FDA questions with the goal of submitting an amended clinical trial protocol. However, any further investments in the development of these assets will be in the context of Thera achieving positive EBITDA / CF in f2023+.

Other (more neutral) updates:

Ahead of Q4/f22 reporting in February 2023, TH announced that it has met its previously announced f2022 revenue guidance of ~US$80 million (vs. NBF at US$80.8 million & consensus at ~US$79.0 million).

For f2023, TH is guiding to revenues of US$90 to US$95 million (vs. NBF at US$95.0 million & consensus at US$92.0 million).

Takeaways

Leno is encouraged to see Theratechnologies refocusing on growing and profitably operating its commercial assets. While execution will be key, the company appears well-positioned to turn a corner given 1) CEO's extensive (35+ years) industry and sales experience; and 2) TH's precedent of having generated positive EBITDA and/or CF from the same commercial assets.

As Theratech's decision to focus primarily on its commercial assets is less risky (vs. early-stage oncology clinical trials) and, likely, to yield results in the NTM, NBF considers this update to be positive. However, given expectations of a generally challenging operating/economic environment (i.e., inflation, labor scarcity, potential supply chain disruptions, etc.) the return to profitability will be monitored closely.

Maintain Sector Perform rating and $3.25 target

Price: 1.53, Change: +0.20, Percent Change: +15.04

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