Interesting details on the windfall tax European Windfall Tax
We expect our windfall tax exposure for both 2022 and 2023 to be at the lower end of our previous estimates, primarily due to lower 2023 European gas strip pricing. Based on the windfall tax frameworks outlined to date, we estimate a windfall tax of approximately $250 million for 2022 and approximately $300 million for 2023. We have reflected these updated estimates in our 2022 net debt forecast and 2023 windfall tax guidance. As a result of this, we expect to exit 2022 with net debt of $1.4 billion or less. Note, the 2023 estimate remains highly sensitive to European gas prices.
Included in these estimates is the assumption that Ireland moves ahead with its proposed 75% windfall tax (approximately 56% net of income tax) in each of 2022 and 2023. We remain firmly opposed to the windfall tax and the manner in which it is being implemented, and we continue to explore options to mitigate the impact. Vermilion has been a responsible operator in Europe for over 25 years, providing essential energy to the region as other oil and gas companies exited. It is our desire to continue working with governments in the region to enhance Europe's energy security; however, Vermilion and its partners require a stable, predictable and equitable regulatory regime in order to commit capital to long-term investments.