RE:Tough times ahead, says yield curveProbably explains why gold is rising again. I still believe real estate, which has yet to fall below pre-pandemic levels, is more at risk than equities. A soft landing by the FED is increasing with every metric but no rate cuts are on the radar which does not bode well for property valuations which were run up on historic cheap money. Leading that trend is tech which ran up on emergency low rates and has since been crushed as the FED tightens.
mouserman wrote: The Globe and Mail reports in its Saturday edition that Sal Guatieri, senior economist, BMO Financial Group, says that Canadian real growth in gross domestic product averaged 3 per cent annualized in the first three quarters of 2022, with little sign of slowing despite fierce monetary tightening. The Globe's Jason Kirby writes that Mr. Guatieri believes that as the full weight of tighter policy bears down on activity, tougher times lie ahead: To wit, the recent minus-154-basis-point spread between yields on Canada 10-year and one-year securities is the most deeply negative spread since the early-1990s recession. The yield curve is not a perfect guide to downturns, but it is one of the most reliable. Ignore it at your peril, says Mr. Guatieri.