Gold/Oil Ratio Pointing to Higher Gold Prices Analysts look at China's growth to assess future oil demand. China had a very restrictive zero-COVID policy that impacted China's growth and energy imports significantly. China is the largest oil importer globally.
Even with a decline in Chinese oil imports there has been a global supply deficit since October 2020 and the price of oil rose until the U.S. Administration intervened to release oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to temporarily, artificially suppress the price of oil. In the last few weeks it now appears those releases have come to an end and the price of oil is rising.
China's zero-COVI policy impacted China's growth and oil imports.
CHINA'S GROWTH Over the last month China has lifted its COVID restrictions and oil imports are climbing. China is loading up on Russian oil. When a European ban on Russian oil products start on 5 Feburary China's refineries and economy will benefit from the refining of Russian oil.
India on the other hand had very limited lock downs and as a result its economy kept growing. India is bulking up its oil imports with Russian oil since Russian oil came under sanctions. When the European ban on Russian oil products start on 5 February India's refined Russian oil products will find their way to Europe.
INDIA'S GROWTH India is the 3rd largest importer of oil, unlike China did not look down.
- China: US$229.3 billion (22.3% of imported crude oil)
- United States: $138.4 billion (13.5%)
- India: $106.4 billion (10.4%)
- South Korea: $67 billion (6.5%)
- Japan: $63.1 billion (6.1%)
- Germany: $40 billion (3.9%)
- Netherlands: $36.3 billion (3.5%)
- Italy: $29.9 billion (2.9%)
- Spain: $29.6 billion (2.9%)
- Thailand: $25.5 billion (2.5%)
- United Kingdom: $23.9 billion (2.3%)
- Singapore: $22.7 billion (2.2%)
- Taiwan: $19.9 billion (1.9%)
- France: $19.2 billion (1.9%)
- Belgium: $18.9 billion (1.8%)
India's nominal growth, which includes inflation, is projected to be at 15.4% for 2022/23, up from an earlier 11.1% estimate. India Becomes 3rd Largest Car Market With a robust economy India has become the world's 3rd largest car market. These are mostly gas cars. More cars equal more oil demand and indicative of a robust economy that will demand more oil in all other sectors.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/India-Becomes-Worlds-3rd-Largest-Car-Market.html
China's recovery from its severe zero-COVID policy and India's burgeoning economy is a major factor in rising oil demand along with a host of other factors that will continue to see demand outstrip supply.
Gold/Oil Ratio Macro fundamental factors of rising demand, under investment, declining shale oil recoveries, faiing renewables to fill gap, and more a oil supply deficit since 2020 will persist much longer with rising oil prices with a consequent inflationary rise, slowing growth, declining stock market and flight of capital to safe havens.
"Gradually GDP growth slows, unemployment rises, as does the cost of living. Costs are rising but the dollar is worth less. People have less to invest, or invest more conservatively, moving their money out of stocks and into safe havens like bonds, foreign currencies and precious metals.Sustained selling crushes the stock market. A recession ensues," Richard Mills, A Head of the Herd, 16 April 2022.
In detail, Mills looks at how the gold/oil ratio is pointing to higher gold prices in the following article. His April article is unfolding as outlined.
https://aheadoftheherd.com/gold-oil-ratio-points-to-higher-gold-prices/
As this unfolds, Calibre will be expanding gold production into a sustained, rising gold price well into the future.