Intact Financial Corporation
Ice Ice Baby: Q4 catastrophe losses in line with our forecast
Our view: Intact’s pre-released catastrophe losses were in line with our forecast. Given our cautious outlook on the short term, we think Intact’s shares are well positioned in this environment given its strong defensive attributes, positive company and industry fundamentals, and potential catalyst(s).
Key points:
For more details on our 2023 outlook on Intact and the P&C sector, please see our 2023 sector outlook report “2023 Canadian Diversified Financials Outlook: Kind of like finding sharks with laser beams attached to their heads”.
Intact pre-released Q4/22 catastrophe losses of ~$143MM pre-tax ($0.63/share after-tax), in line with our $139MM estimate. Of the $143MM, $76MM came from Personal Lines ($13MM in Canada, $63MM in the UK&I) and $67MM came from Commercial ($64MM in Canada, $3MM in UK&I). On a geographic basis, it was $77MM in Canada and $66MM in the UK&I. Cat losses in Canada were primarily from the windstorms in late December in Eastern Canada and additional losses from earlier in 2022. In the UK&I, they came primarily in Personal Lines due to the prolonged period of freezing weather in December leading to burst pipes in homes. Further, Intact did not see any catastrophe losses from the U.S. segment in Q4/22.
Intact will report Q4/22 results on February 7 after market close and host a conference call on February 8 at 11 a.m. ET. Dial-in: 1-888-664-6392 or (416) 764-8659.
Increasing 12-month price target to $231/share (from $225) and maintaining Outperform rating. Our higher price target reflects adjustments to BVPS due to recent market movements and its impact on the value of IFC’s investment book.