RE:RE:RE:Book value minus break fees = ?AlwaysLong683 wrote: malx1 wrote: Indicator wrote:
if anyone has these numbers I'm guessing that is about where it should be trading, also minus the get rid of entire management costs.
Plus higher cost of debt as rates rise and when credit rating falls from BBB, to
junk bond status.
People here don't understand debt markets.
When you don't think it can get worse.
Fitch downgrades you
I doubt AQN drops below BBB. Even this management team and Board knows that would be extremely damaging to them. They will sell and interest in or entirely dispose of as many assets as it takes to maintain their BBB rating. Also, they can technically fall one rating level to BBB- and still be investment grade, but that would be crazy because another downgrade would mean junk bond status. Even dropping from BBB to BBB- would likely have a negative effect on their existing floating-rate debt along with debt that comes up for renewal.
Four diff debt rating agencies. Fitch doesn't use BBB-
I'm simply pointing out that there is a risk of AQN credit rating downgrade as interest rates rise.
Not saying it's certain but downgrades tend to show up long after the balance sheet is deemed broken.
Billion dollar debt problems for a company this size can take years to rightsize.
If KY deal goes through, there's even more risk here.
Imagine massive dilution for shareholders if the company issues $2B worth of shares at $6.
Ouch.
People here calling for $10 sp and higher, they are delusional under the current economic backdrop.
Should we sink into deeper, proglnged recession, this is a $5 stock. None of us know how bad the debt bubble is in Canada. Will find out more in the coming quarters. Try to be reasonable. Most households could barely afford mortgage at 3%. Refinancing at 6% is going to sink a lot of ships.
The waters are murky.