RE:Generic version of Pfizer's CDK4,6 inhibitor launched With pharma recording appoximately $900 billion in 2021 revenue, about $230 billion of that $900 billion will lose patent protection between 2025 and 2030, according to a Goldman Sachs analysis cited by The Wall Street Journal. Companies will have to find a way to bridge that growth gap.
Merck may be one biopharma poised for a megadeal. The drugmaker had been in talks to acquire Seagen for $40 billion before negotiations broke down. But management has signaled openness to a deal of that size in order to replace the revenue soon to be lost from I-O megablockbuster Keytruda.
Now consider that Pfizer’s two top products last year were pandemic-related – the COVID-19 vaccine Comirnaty and the antiviral pill Paxlovid, both of which were expected to generate $56 billion in sales in 2022. That was likely to account for about half of its sales.
But this year, as COVID deaths and hospitalizations come down, sales of these products are set to decline, too. That dynamic adds to pressure already felt from other areas of Pfizer's business, like the coming patent losses on blood thinner Eliquis and as posted above, their breast cancer CDK4.6 inhibitor drug Ibrance.
“Big pharma revenue gaps are real, growth ambitions haven’t necessarily modulated, and IRA impacts are definitely not fully understood,” said Priya Chandran, managing director/senior partner, global sector leader, biopharmaceuticals, at BCG. “So with all of those downward pressures, you’re going to see more deal-making, because big pharma needs the needs deals to fuel growth.”