RE:RE:TD: Very Positive Starsearcher80 wrote: I would agree with TD that there is a lot more upside room for Bombardier, and as for these results, they fully fit in to the "better than expected" category. Well done Bombardier.
While these results do provide a nice pop to the stock today, it does take out some of that normal anticipation buying to what would have been Feb 9th. As much as I like the pop today, I still would have preferred waiting until the 9th if possible.
Ultimately, the stock settles out where it always would have, i.e., ultimately the price Bombardier will rise to will ultimately be the same, pre-announcement or not. anticipation buying or not. If anything, this announcement will give further credence that the company is on an excellent (if not astounding) path to recovery, and the future is extremely bright.
My technical target for the time being remains at $71.00
lb1temporary wrote: Bombardier announced preliminary full-year 2022 financial results.
Impact: POSITIVE
We view the preliminary 2022 results as very positive given that they are stronger than-expected relative to our forecasts, consensus estimates, and previous company guidance. As expected, order activity has slowed from the historically strong levels of 2021 and early 2022. Sentiment towards the stock has improved dramatically due to execution, industry conditions, and the company's ability to generate FCF and repay debt well ahead of schedule. We believe that this positive sentiment should continue due to the backlog strength and quality, FCF, deleveraging, and the ongoing improvement in company credibility. Preliminary results lend further support to our view that the risk to Bombardier achieving its 2025 financial targets is decreasing, and that there is the potential for results to exceed targets. However, we still do not view the current share price and valuation as reflecting the long-term, risk-adjusted value potential for the company.
Full-Year 2022 Preliminary Results: Revenue of approximately $6.9 billion (previous guidance of >$6.5 billion), implying Q4/22 revenue of approximately $2.6 billion. This represents a 49% y/y increase, and is above TD and the consensus estimate of $2.3 billion. Bombardier expects to deliver 123 aircraft in 2022 (versus guidance of >120 aircraft and TD forecast of 121 aircraft).
Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $930 million (versus guidance of >$825 million), implying Q4/22 Adjusted EBITDA of approximately $352 million. This represents a 52% y/y increase, and is above TD and consensus estimate of $328 million and $294 million, respectively.
Adjusted EBIT of approximately $510 million (versus guidance of >$375 million), implying Q4/22 Adjusted EBIT of approximately $209 million. This represents an 85% y/y increase, and is above TD and consensus estimate of $179 million and $170 million, respectively.
FCF of approximately $735 million (versus guidance of >$515 million), implying Q4/22 FCF of approximately $169 million, above our estimate of $39 million.
2022 unit book-to-bill of approximately 1.4x (in-line with TD forecast) and a yearend backlog of approximately $14.8 billion (above TD forecast of $14.6 billion). Q4/22 implied book-to-bill is 0.7-0.8x.
obviously the bomber will have some more positive news to announce at the Q4 results presentation ... under promise and over deliver is in full force and perfectly planned announcements is also in play ... remember that the bomber has to play the institutions also , there are different parameters when servicing the debt and getting it all done right ... I am no expert but this is definately a planned strategy , and I can now say that they are on the right track ... many moving parts adding up to a much better investment grade stock I believe and funds like that kind of quality ..;) ...GLTA