WOWI've been reading posts here since 9 am.
That's some News Releases & Early Results Release.
Thanks to Temp for his preliminary #'s & some others here for their opinions.
Well here is my preliminary take on what's happening.
The #'s for Q4/22 are spectacular. I think I've posted the same Revs $2.6B, and FCF $350M, for Q4/22 when asked by someone here to predict it for him. I'll have to retrieve it from my earlier posts. The full 2022 Revs, of $6.9B shows that I've predicted for 2022 were also very close to what I've predicted there tooI'll check it. So I'll get back to the whole number thing again. TD thanks to Temp again said most of it anyway for 2022.
Here is what this Press release says this to me on the future LTD.
Rough numbers. They had a LTD of about $1.5.B owing left to pay between 2024/25 remaining Notes. So they're going after $500M to Re-finance for 2029. This implies that they are going to pay down about $1B in LTD from their Balance Sheet. It's understable. That's what I expected. They had the $400M coming from the Collateral money, and even $350M of FCF from Q4/22. So that's almost all the $1B paydown announcement. That $300M more to add could come from from Q1/23 depending on the FCF. I can imagine the Rating Agencies seeing the $1B paydown just at the begining of 2023. Their Ratings will get in line, for sure. I'll discuss this later too.
But we have another direction in the turn of events here. The Backlog. This has been reduced in Q4/22. This just says to me that Martel and company have come to a conclusion on the Backlog. They said a couple years back, that they want to have a Quality, Balanced, & Healthy $$$ amount of Backlog of almost 2.5 years. I think they're there now. That's why they don't want to increase Backlog too much, and instead are producing it to show their Customers that they can Ramp up & deliver their planes faster. 123 Deliveries gives us almost 6 more than we expected. It'll be interesting to see who & where they were delivered. I think Witchita was the place they were delivered from? .Cheers