RE:SELL off
The only thing I can think of after punching in the numbers for 2023 is that TXG will have a losing 2023 year because of the non-sustaining CAPEX costs of between $412 to $462M. Most of this cost is for the new Media Luna project coming on stream in early 2025. Keep in mind that 2024 and 2025 should be much better with much lower non-sustaing costs.
If you take an average 2023 gold price of $1850, using the non-sustaining costs above along with their estimated 440-470,000oz production at AISC between $1080-$1130/oz, $85.85M shares outstanding, you get different scenarios:
Using a $1850 gold price average for 2023. Each $50 swing in the gold price will affect the annual numbers below by about $2.60/share. So an average gold price of $1900/oz for 2023 will improve my numbers below by about $2.60/share.
Best Case Annual Numbers for 2023:
Using 470,000oz production at $1080 AISC with $412M non-sustaing capex, TXG could lose about $5.85/share
Using 470,000oz production at $1080 AISC with $462M non-sustaing capex, TXG could lose about $11.70/share
Worst Case Annual Numbers for 2023:
Using 440,000oz production at $1130 AISC with $412M non-sustaing capex, TXG could lose about $11/share
Using 440,000oz production at $1130 AISC with $462M non-sustaing capex, TXG could lose about $17/share
Now it gets very interesting if the gold price averages $100 higher or $1950/oz for 2023. You can reduce the losses above in each scenario by about $5.20/share. That means in the very Best Case numbers of a $5.85/share loss could actually improve to around a 65 cent/share loss. At a gold price $200 higher or $2050/oz average, TXG could make a profit at best of about $4.55/share. Input numbers can change but this is close with the current numbers I have shown.
Hope this helps!