BBDB859 wrote: Hey Club.
Both sides of Congress play this default game constanly depending on which group controls the House or Senate. They gotta cooperate to pay their Interest. Or default.
On the Recession side of things, I was one of the ones here that said, I think we're heading into one for sure. The Economy is very week. Unemloyement will start to hit newer highs. House prices are heading downwards. The Construction industry here is adapting to the new Economic Enviroment. Trades, Materials, Grocery & Gas prices are slowly coming down. But this is a slow development. I have no confidence in the Govt in controlling this gentle slow down. They make mistakes. We're going to be in this type of setting for 2 years easy. If we see these type of corrections taking place in the next 2 years, where the descend is slow? Then we'll be ok.
But if this persists to 3 years then we're in trouble. Or if the descend is too quick in the next 2 years, we're also trouble. Why? All those cheap 3/4/5 year Mortgages will start to get renewed & then watch out. The Bankruptcy's will not be controllable.
As for the SP staying at $52? No one knows where the price is going. We are undervalued now, and when the LTD of this company stabilizes to Net Debt of $3.5B, then we'll see where we are on the SP in the
LONGER horizon. And off course the momentum of the SP from Quarter to Quarter, year to year fluctuations, will dictate that direction on the
short term too.
Is the Ukrane war is intensifying??? Who knows what RUSSIA will decide there?
As for the Bombardier Will we see if the BJ B2B will stay at around 1 to 1. for the next year or 2. That will dectate the FCF/EBITDA side. The good part is, is the Backlog is huge, and we may have to adjust the Ramp-up side to 10% to 15% to wheather the storm smoothly. This way it takes into account the production increases, and the softening demand for BJ's.
It's going to be a bit tricky, to navigate through this economic climate for us. But I have the feeling that Management can do it. The ER is almost here, so we'll see the progress of things even clearer then too.
clubhouse19 wrote: Looks like we may come into some nervous markets considering the congress is likely to hold the debt ceiling hostage.
And who was it here that claimed that we will have a full blown recession who was considered to be a star while BBD would not go above 52 ?? ?
Looks like all the signs point to a soft landing.