RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Why dividend Doubleneed wrote: I do not know where that 200M on hand end of the year come from, but it is non sense. 85% of 24200bd at a $4 discount to brent or $83.50, less $22 in opex, 19% in royalties and SRB, leaves $45.5 in operating netbacks or US $345M per year. Capex for Nong Yao is US70M gross for 2023 and 2024, at 76.5% interest VLE capex would be ard US27M per year. Wassana campain is US30M, 75% interest so US22M. Jasmine, 19 wells at $4M per well, $80M at 85%, $68M in 2023/24, so $34M per year. Rossukon is unknown. Without Rossukon, these programs will cost ard US85M per year and increase production to 85% of 28600BD or 22200 at $45.5 which is US$370 per year.
Interest costs are 0, G&A, a few millions. Assuming $100M on hand at closing, unless they pay dividend or buy back shares which is the best option, cash on hand end 2023 should be ard $440M cdn. Now, if Brent gets over $100, do the math.
I think, your calculation is pretty close (I made one on January 14. I used 80 oil and 25k bpd. My opex is 12m higher and I calculated an Ebitda of around $300m (US).
We differ about the capex, I had 150m (incl. Rossukon) and admitted, that some of this may slip to 2024. Cost of wells, I took the high side side with 6m, you the low side with 4m.
Under my assumptions, I came to cash cash generation of 140m Usd. 2 wildcards: 1) cash (generated) at close of the deal and 2) taxes (quite possible, that there is some undeductable stuff).
Before the mental ill guys here show up again...I'll buy them, if the deal is through. I zero know the probabilities, but what I know...if it falls through, you're looking for sub 1 and I'm not willing to take such a risk without knowing anything about the probabilities.