What could the next 18 months be worth?Step-wise and realistic plans are now in process that provide increasing visibility concernng where CZO could be in the next 12-18 months. CZO has the cash to deliver.
What could the next 18 months be worth if...
1) CZO completes the Phase !/IIa avenanthramide clinical trial? The non-steroidal anti-inflammatory market is worth $65 billion according to Gilles and a typitcal drug can receive 7-10% market share in its launch year which would be $5.5 billion in revenue at the mid-point. In 18 months CZO could have safety, tolerability data and hints of efficacy in humans from a Phase I/IIa clinical trial. In the past CZO has then talked about licensing the product to a pharma company. Put a potential dollar value on that. I dare you!
2) A 'go' or 'no go' decision for the fibrosis Phase I clinical trial is anticipated in the second half of this year. Dr. Ask and Dr. Kolb have expressed excitement about the program. The scientific literature has pointed to the importance of macrophages. Dr. Ask, and Dr. Kolb have worked with Avalyn Pharma in the past and it raised ~C$80 million preclinically for its inhaled IPF drug ahead of a Phase I clinical trial. Unlike Avalyn's drug which is an inhaled version of a currently marketed drug CZO's drug could also be a standalone. COVID wasn't around when Avalyn raised that ~C$80 million preclinically. Over 40% of deaths world-wide are also attributable to fibrosis and CZO's drug could be applicable beyond the lungs. CZO's carrier could also carry drugs for other diseases. Put a potential dollar value on this program in the next 18 months. I dare you!
3) In the past CZO has said that a 40 million dose plant for PGX-YBG could have a $100 million NPV assuming a 25% discount rate and 10 year time horizon. What could the discount rate be with a successful 5X scale-up as is being attemped right now? What could that $100 million NPV be in 18 months? CZO could also support its first commercial revenue with this scale-up providing commercial validation and cashflow limiting dilution and supporting the scale-up to 40 million doses.
4) Given CoQ10 is a potential $1 billion market what could this program be worth if CZO signs a licensing deal with a life sciences company? The bioavailability data CZO has shown dwarfs the gold standard and PGX-OBG's results which only had the limitation of cost we are told after discussions with industry. "Diseases such as neurodegenerative diseases, fibromyalgia, diabetes, cancer, mitochondrial diseases, muscular diseases, and heart failure are associated with decreased circulating levels of CoQ10." The CoQ10 data further points to the possibility of using PGX as a Trojan Horse to deliver bioactive to macrophages for delivery in the body.
5) What could another year of growth be worth for the base business given CZO has hired a new CRO to target new customers and potential business lines in 2023; as well as given the new Symrise agreement.
Plans to achieve the above step-wide and realistic targets are now in process. CZO has the cash to execute on the above as never before. What could the market cap of CZO be in the next 18 months if the above is realized? Put a potential price per share on the next 18 months. I dare you!