RE:RE:RE:Référence price for 4th quarterExactly. So lets say debt free in 18-24 months just to be conservative. This is why after the RSUs pay-out end of Feb they will need to start disclosing their profotability and intentions in order to defend the share price. My thought would be to signal that they will start paying a small dividend to shareholders starting after the debt is cleared (as they are not permitted to do so prior). Something like 2-3cents a quarter. Just on a yield basis then this ought to bring the sp up to $1-$1.50. Still vastly undervalued. And then concievably the divy could rise to $5-10c per q pushing sp up to $4-5. Because really no one is going to buy that we are a growth story.
Ernieandbert wrote: Thanks Contrarian.
For FCF, one needs to take Ebitda (which includes C$50mm of corp o/h) and deduct Cash Int Exp (~23mm) less Taxes (~50mm) less Capex (~75mm) = C$252mm of FCF.
Bonds o/s = ~C$300mm. Meaning, by YE23, they could pay out almost all bonds with FCF. And then if there is a release of WC at Moa, that upstream of WC is additive to the Dividends and FCF stated above.
Remember, S is effectively a holdco. Moa is the opco. Everything S makes is an upstream (both Dividends and WC) from Moa.
And if you look at valuation, at ~$300mm of bonds at roughly .83 = $250mm (cuffed) and the stock at .62 = $250mm you get ~$500mm of EV / C$400mm of Ebitda = 1.25x. (and this iexcludes all cash including cash in Canada to be ultra-conservative). Meaning, some Chinese co can buy S today for C$500mm and after 1.25 years of Ebitda, they would own the mine oprations and the cash flow free and clear for the next 25 years. Unless one thinks there is no need for Ni and Co for the next 25yrs. Think about that for a second. Oil cos in Canada trade at 3x and most woke idiots think there will be no use for pertrochemicals ever again in a few years. S should trade at 5x today which would put the stock closer to C$5.00...and maybe a higher multiple should be attached to it.
All hinges on the price of Ni and Co, of course, but I think it is fair to say there is a tailwind on tht front.