RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Long Term Targetsdllscwbysfn wrote: Nuttal's charts are quite often a little misleading. Usually his charts are based on $100 WTI. If we were to get an average of $90 WTI until the end of Q1 of 2024 we would likely hit the $400m in debt and around 460 in shares. I would be very pleased if it played out like that.
JohnnyDoe wrote: red2000 wrote: Long term debt calculation from Eric Nuttall
WTI at 90$, strip nat gas and USD/CAD exchange
WCS diff at 20$ for 2023.
Red that chart is a little misleading in my view. It presents what Nuttal wants you to see or the story he's trying to tell, but it doesn't present the story that oil companies are telling.
Nuttal is presenting what happens if all fcf less base dividends is used to pay off debt. That deliberately doesn't consider any of the companies shareholder return plans, almost all of which include some level of buybacks.
He's got Baytex debt free Q1 2024 at 90 wti but that's not what Baytex is trying to achieve.
Nuttal is a "salesman". His job is to hype oil and will present his buying points with the best case scenario front and center. The last time h was on BNN, ALL his comments/numbers were based on $100 oil and how each company could privatize using fcf in a couple of years. A good investor needs to see the possible downside in order to make proper decisions. FYI He has trimmed his 10 year bull market to a 4-6 year window now. And I agree with him when he states that if we go into recession, oil consumption would not be affected BUT Iam interrested in the sp and that will definitely get affected. So I guess the best advice in relation to Nuttal is to take what he says with a grain of salt.