RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Predictions...predictionsHi Club.
With regard to China. The points I want to add there, are going to help us understand their issues even better.
-The 1 child polict they've had for 3 decades in China, have now really put a damper on their cheap labor supply. They are in fact much more costrained on that side, than they are given credit for. Therefore their of production is getting higher.
-Their ability to feed their
HUGE population is already a factor in exporting any products. Surplus's are not going to come easy.
-Then there is the Industrial side of China's production. I have a friend that is older than I am, by a decade, and now, he is taking production that he outsourced to China eleven years ago out of there. Because it was cheaper to produce in China when he outsourced. He is in the High Teck semi-conductor sector. Well he is now, paying to start up his operation here in Canada again. The start up cost is huge for him to re-start, yet he's finding that it's still cheaper to produce here again, even with our high labor cost, and costs of production. This may have something to do with what you're saying Club, is going on, in the Canadian Immigration policy on labor with regards to the skilled Immigration labor, that you regularly talk about coming here. I personally wouldn't even dream of starting this type, or any type of business at this age just because I have other plans. But even thinking that, I would really do such a high financial investment, is too scary right now. Who knows with Demographics? High risk high reaward I guess. You have to have huge cohoonas to take such risks.
My point is, is that he owns his own factories. And he's only starting smaller scale. So that takes some of the risk out. Even that is too expensive for my taste.. And here is why? Industrial Rental Rates have peaked at $20.00/sq.ft. in the US Industrial hubs, & almost $18.00/sq.ft. here in Toronto. So why even risk that on my part. At least he owns the Real Estate he's producing in I guess.
clubhouse19 wrote: All points are good..But really not the bankers that will ultimately affect inflation but producers and consumer.
I will still maintain that China, who has really been on a hiatus due to covid and their lack of ability to manage it,as a major producer of lower end consumer goods and tech and cause supply chain issues, once in full force again will tend to bring prices down more than may be expected.
I am quite sure they will be agressive enough to get back where they were and regain there share of the go to place for pricing.
The lack of skilled labor is one important issue that will have to be tackled as my services are no longer available LOL
flamingogold wrote: 859... I'll interject with you three if I may. I tend to agree with you. The bankers are not going to squash inflation as quickly as everyone thinks. We're around 6% now, sure we dropped quickly last year from the peak but the hard work lies ahead in widdling it down back to 2%, especially once it's under 4%
I still see inflation ticking up in some areas. Just the other day, of all things, these socks I bought had jumped in price by $2 since checking them online a week ago. Luckily, the store had not replaced all the tags yet to the new price so I got the old price lol. Point being, we are a long way off from slaying the inflation beast.
While I'm expecting a mild recession ahead, I don't believe it will hit us this year as everyone predicts. I think it's more likely next year sometime as the FED realizes it needs to move harder on rates. The market is currently pricing in a rate pause and possibly even a decline of all things. How in heck is that possible if we are to get back to 2%. If they reduce, the market will celebrate but I expect inflation to be sticky for a long, long time and this "soft landing" runway may consume the better part of this decade!
BBDB859 wrote: Hey guys.
I'm glad I have you two (Club/Nobody) on the same post here.
This post is off topic to your current discussion. Though, it is right on topic from our previous discussions, on the Economy. So HERE goes.
We 've been having these discusions off on, at various times about the CANADIAN ECONOMY..The fact is, that we
are starting to get realistic predictions/projections by Economist and Agencies now, on the Economy The average prediction by Economists, on the Inflation reaching the 2% annual Inflation Rate, is in 3 years, from now or in 2026.
This 2026 year prediction, tells me all I need to know, to project what we'll see in the next 3 years. I don't want to outline any of my of predictions here. I'm not not here to spread Gloom & Doom. That's not my thing. I can only say that
"Inflation isn't correcting itself" So act accordingly.
Those who are used to, or are expecting 1 or 2 year corrections in the Canadian Economy Economy, are the biggest ones, that will get surprised. We've enjoyed a 25 year ride upwards in the Economy in Ontario since 1997. Especially in the housing sector. So this is why I say
Recession. And you may have your own predictions, and opinions, and I have mine. So there is no point in debating this with me I try to keep these things real on this board, as you guys know. But sometimes reality is just starring you in the face.
As for the Bomber's plight in the next 2 to 3 years. I think we'll ride through unscathed in this Recession, and our share price will stay healthy, and rising, once Institutions, Banks, and the Private Investors, see a more resilient Bombardier FCF, and Revs Increasing, in the next few Quarters & in 2023/24 Years.
So enjoy the ride on the Bomber, and stay focussed given the Economic predictions from the Economic Experts.
MyNameIsNobody wrote: Very true amigo.. most if not everyone shouldn't make prediction.
If we really knew what we think we know we'd all be very rich, or a lot richer than now... that is if some of you are already rich :)
clubhouse19 wrote: Most should stay away from predictions as I do as we are seeing that it doesn't make you a star! This retracement was to be over as mentioned yesterday,,,most of the times you just end up looking foolish trying to pretend you know it all.