RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:Q4 expected 1 Feb?Everything right now is pointing to a shallow recession.
Job market is strong because labour participation dropped.
Why? Because baby boomers finally retired, en masse.
Can never have a bad recession if job markets are strong.
I don't see companies laying off a lot when labour markets are fairly tight. A lot of risk to lay off if you cant hire back easily.
So unemployment will stay fairly low (maybe rise 1%) and consumers will cut back on spending yes but not as much as if they were unemployed.
So for markets I think once they realize a softish landing is happening we will see a great H2 2023