RE:$2.50 NG?goldenrivit wrote: Looks possible.
My turn, everytime I check in lately and do some reading I leave feeling twice as buff from all the pumping going on here, lol.
As profits for longer term investors continue to erode from the fairly recent 12.60 high reality begins to set in. This company is still a somewhat chit show.
Bearish opinion? Various time frame charts IMO if ng slide continues to show weakness without confirmed reversal sees 2.42 +- 2 1/2% (2.50?) current possible landing in play and a complete retrace could see a 2.05 ng bottom blip (not nice!)
Reality? Risk/Reward only slightly palatable starting at BIR 7.85ish (back on the watch list for me) only because of pending div for 2023 they can kill anytime in parts or all if ng finds the bottom but languishes then for months (into summer and it better be a hot one!).
The failed unhedged hype is not helping big time IMO now and the reality is 49% of all gas produced in AB.ca stays in AB, currently, another 27% goes to supply rest of Canada which does not leave much for export to the US in reality. Check these facts AB NG key statistic out as of year end 2021 and do the DD from there for the basis of where we are end of 2022.
Alberta natural gas key statistics : factsheet Now think of all the gas producers in AB that want to get a tiny little piece of Alberta's ng export, not very much for any mid size or small producers especially if unhedged.
Result personally, I would not be a buyer here until technical bottom around 6.50ish where risk/reward becomes better than 50% again sorry. The analyist that just posted 9.70ish BIR target (sorry con't remember) may be closer to reality now than many think. Those preferred skeleton's that BIR created 10 years ago hurt more than you think with the current ng tank reality.
Looking for a better risk/reward scenario if wanting to stay in the oil/gas sector if looking to park some available capital into? KELT KEL IMOfrom an undervalued company perspective has just retraced 100% from it's 1 year high to it's 52 week low at 4.52 (4.55 today) due to a land sale not well received by the market a while ago, is debt free, good holdings, blah blah blah, and currently presents a 75% risk/reward forseeable hold right now, and if the ng slide finds a true bottom, maybe a 100% risk/reward down to 4.00. Yes I am investing and hold some in the last few days.
Reality is there is almost nothing left out there all company's that present a similar opportunity based on financials.
But what the hell do i know, maybe this is the ng bottom today, lol, I wouldn't bet any of my capital on it just yet, afterall I'm in the game to make money, cheers and good luck.