palinc2000 wrote: You are right in saying that its not over till its over,But you omit the following
1-Katana tried for more than a year to attract suitors probably already involved in oncology and there were no takers except for THTX
2-The takeover price was peanuts and moreover the selling shareholders will not be getting any royalties .....So the selling shareholders were satisfied to get a few millions only .....
3-Christian was indeed part of an oncology team for a relatively short period more than 17 years ago before joining THTX 2006...THTX was not involved in oncology so Christian s experience in oncology is quite limited
4-Soleus did invest but they are in the business of risk taking ....win some lose some
5-I described the acquisition of Katana as a lottery ticket ..and a distraction ..low cost very high reward ......but the cost since has the acquisition has gone up
6 -You keeep mentioning the Scientifi advisor DR Rothenburgh...He is an PAID advisor ...I dont see why you are seeing his appointment as a positive sign of success
Billions $ are spent each year on cancer research and it is still the leading cause of death
Novel treatments are needed of course but is this THTX mission ?
SPCEO1 wrote: Clinical trials are risky as you point out but TH-1902 had some things going for it that should not be overlooked. First, their CMO was actually a cancer researcher at his previous job at Pfizer, so THTX was not completely without experience in the field. Second, he did a lot of pre-clincial work which had impressive results and that gave everyone confidence TH-1902 might have a better than normal chance at success. That convinced cancer investing experts at Soleus to become the company's largest shareholder. It also convinced the FDA to grant the drug Fast Track status even before they had begun human trials. The peer-reviewed articles on TH-1902 also supported the idea that THTX might have something in TH-1902. And the addition of Pfizer's ex CMO as a Scientific Advisor was an unbeleivable "get" for THTX as most biotechs would have given their first born child to be able to list him as an advisor. Obviously, it gave investors confidence as well that he would be willing to associate his name with our cancer drug candidate and help usher it through to approval. While drug trials are by their nature risky, TH-1902's had these attributes that made it less risky then most others and something most investors would have been anxious for them to try to capitalize on. Pursuing it made a lot of sense. And, who knows, it may yet amount to something. If they do eventually obtain good human trial data, which has to be viewed as a long shot at this point as all that good stuff previously is subserviant to actual human data, they will easily obtain the money and expertise needed to continue the trials. Paul made a sensible bet to pursue TH-1902 with the info he had at the time (of course we don't have access to all the data he did, so maybe it was not as sensible in light of unreleased info THTX had on TH-1902) and he cannot be faulted for the drug not working in phase 1b. The human body is a complex thing and drug trials are set-up in ways that one minor design decision that turns out to be sub-optimal can scuttle the whole thing. And those decisions to pursue such a trial should be made in light of the potential reward as well, particularly when the preclinical work looked so good. So, in my mind, pursuing TH-1902 was defintely the right call and the story on TH-1902 is not quite over yet. I spoke with someone recently who had a relative in the cancer research business and they told him that almost no cancer drug skates through the trials without some significant setbacks. It is not over until it is over.
palinc2000 wrote: Clinical trials by definition are risky but some are riskier .Th 1902 falls into that riskier category and THTX decided to improvize itself in oncology without any in house expertise at what appeared to the naked eye to be a low cost acquisition but without the funds needed to support the development of the platform .A small biotech primary goal is to survive and not let itself be seduced by opportunities if they dont have the means ( knowkedge and$) to carry it through.Where would THTX be today if the focus in the last 3 years had not been diluted on oncology.
I think this is what the analysts who never took TH 1902 seriously were thinking.
We cant erase the past but we can learn !!!
Luckily the SP did not go sky high on expectations of positive results ...the pain would be much greater today
I will repeat what I have been saying a few times
THTX next move will define Paul s legacy...I trust that he will make the right call
scarlet1967 wrote:
"To us, the main question is why continue to invest in the development of such risky assets when time, bandwidth and cash could, perhaps, be invested in other assets with, potentially, better visibility and/or ROI such as, possibly, TH's commercial platform."
This is what National bank’s analyst said on December second day after the pause announcement, not very optimistic about company’s decision regarding amending the trial/submitting it…as per the PR day before. As of 10/13 they had about 240k shares worth $561k average SP at $2.3 then they added (521-240) 281k shares by the end of calendar year 2022 with the total value $462k, their 521k shares have an average SP at .88, THTX year low SP was .77 so they must have picked those shares after the pause after their brilliant skeptical analysis. Correct me if I am wrong looking at those numbers the pessimistic National bank must have picked up those shares at near multi year lows before that letter from Paul which National bank analyst was a big fan of. Naturally if “investing in the development of such risky assets…” is the wrong approach why increasing their portfolio by 117 per cent and that was before the announcement of planning for positive EBIDTA/cash flow, stage wise decisions about oncology considering the costs etc.
Point is relying on these analysts which time after time have been proven to be dishonest is absolute waste of time, no wonder with PTs from $3 to $9 we don’t have a long line up of investor in hurry to have a piece of this great investment opportunity. THTX for you commercial products your strategy has been direct to patient/doctors approach attending HIV seminars, arranging educational meetings for HIV communities, Thera Thursdays etc. etc. how about implementing the same communication strategy for the investment communities! DIRECT TO INVESTOR APPROACH...