Altos research I watched the video and I'd like to give my commentary. The video can be watched below.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=YvY7nX8kzJ8
First point. A few comments he made do not add up. He said rents and home price typically move together. Ok, then if that's true then why is the US home price to rent ratio at its historical high? If this ratio mean reverts, then simple math tells me the price of homes has to come down to confirm the idea that rents and home prices move together. Single family rents has been levelling off and yet there is a huge gap between home prices and rents.
Second point. Although this isn't mentioned in the video, I'd like to discuss the excess supply coming to market. The supply of new condominiums and apartments in both Canada and the US is going to increase significantly in 2023. The reason for this is that many of these developments were purchased years ago and have to be delivered. The low rise market, which has a much shorter lead time, is going to get pummelled. The excess housing inventory in condominiums is going to further drive down the prices for these units. There is one thing I learned from studying Economics is that an increase in supply shifts the supply curve to the right which lowers the equilibrium price. Ok, that makes sense.
Third point. What happens if there is a recession and people lose their jobs? Do any of his charts describe what would happen to inventory and median home prices?
If someone is going to blindly follow this man's advice, who might even have an agenda, then that's your problem not mine. There is absolutely no reason for home prices to be up ~ 40% since the start of the pandemic. This was driven by low interest rates and an increase in inflation. A typical family did not see an increase of 40% in their salaries. Construction costs will also come down and this will further drive down prices.