RE:RE:RE:RE:5 active drilling rigs It's an interesting situation
OBE tends to get left out of comparable lists from popular influencers like Nuttal etc
Those capable of doing their own analysis already own OBE
Those who need their hand held before they invest are elsewhere
It's a bit like the ugly duckling that becomes a swan. It was always a swan, but the majority didn't notice until it became full grown
As for takeovers - very few hostile take overs occur. OBE knows its value and is unlikely to agree to a take over unless there is no money left on the table. Today that would mean a premium of 200% or more. We can assume they get takeover interest frequently, but not at fair value
OBE will break out at some point and get the attention of a broader investment crowd.
I think that happens when they start to appeal to income investors by paying a dividend
Dividend investors will value OBE based on dividend yield and potential for dividend growth
OBEs low price status places it in a position where it could "suddenly" offer a 20+% dividend yield. The price would likely adjust quickly to make that a 7-9% yield
Based on what mgmt has previously stated publicly that happens after debt hits $225 million, and the number of shares outstanding has been reduced (likely by the 10% annual limit)
As mentioned elsewhere, they may be able to do this by the end of Q2
They may also do it concurrently rather than consecutively.
They may say something on Monday about starting their share repurchase program (even though the bulk of it won't occur until Q2)
ps a dividend is useless to share price unless the yield exceeds 9%. That may be why they are first increasing their production volume and reducing their number of shares
As for current volume hopefully we will find out on Monday. The potential to be in the 35-36k range exists
The potential also exists to achieve 38k by the end of break up AND exit the year at 40-42k
ps2. That exit is implied by a 37-38k 2023 average
With that much money on the table it becomes clearer why OBE has not agreed to a take over