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Obsidian Energy Ltd T.OBE

Alternate Symbol(s):  OBE

Obsidian Energy Ltd. is a Canada-based exploration and production company. The Company operates in one segment, to explore for, develop and hold interests in oil and natural gas properties and related production infrastructure in the Western Canada Sedimentary Basin directly and through investments in securities of subsidiaries holding such interests. It has a portfolio of assets producing around 35,700 barrels of oil equivalent (boe) per day. Its operating areas include Cardium, Peace River and Viking areas of Alberta. Its Cardium asset is a fully delineated and de-risked asset. It is focused on manufacturing repeatable low-decline and high-netback light-oil wells across its Cardium land base. The Viking is a light oil, horizontal development play located in central Alberta. Its operations are focused on the Esther area. Peace River is a stable, cold-flow, base production asset. It operates on a contiguous and an acreage within the heart of the Peace River Oilsands region.


TSX:OBE - Post by User

Comment by JohnJBondon Jan 29, 2023 11:34am
329 Views
Post# 35252677

RE:RE:RE:RE:5 active drilling rigs

RE:RE:RE:RE:5 active drilling rigs

It's an interesting situation 

OBE tends to get left out of comparable lists from popular influencers like Nuttal etc

Those capable of doing their own analysis already own OBE

Those who need their hand held before they invest are elsewhere 

It's a bit like the ugly duckling that becomes a swan.    It was always a swan, but the majority didn't notice until it became full grown 

As for takeovers - very few hostile take overs occur.    OBE knows its value and is unlikely to agree to a take over unless there is no money left on the table.   Today that would mean a premium of 200% or more.    We can assume they get takeover interest frequently, but not at fair value 

OBE will break out at some point and get the attention of a broader investment crowd.    

I think that happens when they start to appeal to income investors by paying a dividend 

Dividend investors will value OBE based on dividend yield and potential for dividend growth 

OBEs low price status places it in a position where it could "suddenly" offer a 20+% dividend yield.     The price would likely adjust quickly to make that a 7-9% yield 

Based on what mgmt has previously stated publicly that happens after debt hits $225 million, and the number of shares outstanding has been reduced (likely by the 10% annual limit)

As mentioned elsewhere, they may be able to do this by the end of Q2

They may also do it concurrently rather than consecutively.    

They may say something on Monday about starting their share repurchase program (even though the bulk of it won't occur until Q2)

ps a dividend is useless to share price unless the yield exceeds 9%.    That may be why they are first increasing their production volume and reducing their number of shares 

As for current volume hopefully we will find out on Monday.   The potential to be in the 35-36k range exists 

The potential also exists to achieve 38k by the end of break up AND exit the year at 40-42k

ps2.   That exit is implied by a 37-38k 2023 average 

With that much money on the table it becomes clearer why OBE has not agreed to a take over 

 

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