RE:RE:HendrickOne thing I failed to mention.
If you go from 33,000 boe to 37500 boe that is a 13.6% increase. All things being equal, the per share metrics should be 13.6% higher (Funds flow per share etc).
If you go from 82 million shares to 73.8 million shares (ie after buying back 10%), the per share metrics improvement is almost the same.
33,750 boe divided by 73.8 million shares is the same as 37500 divided by 82 million shares.
What some people miss is it costs more to maintain 37,500 boe per year, than it does to maintain 33,750 boe per year. Whereas you only pay once when you reduce the number of shares by 10%.
We tend to be programmed to think that producing more is better. However sometimes its better to produce the same, with fewer shares.
Some may of noticed that Baytex took all of the top ten Clearwater well production spots for December. However Baytex has so many shares outstanding, that great results like that don't affect the share price.
Loukas said he'd rather spend the money on buying back shares at current prices than increasing production. Its taken a bit of mental wrangling to come around to that decision. The more I think about it, the more I like it.
I really like the idea of buying shares back during Q1. If oil is going to run up in 2023 its likely to happen after Q1. ie, a buy back will likely increase the share price. By Q2 oil may be high enough to continue that share price rise.
Those holding short positions in OBE now have one more reason to exit their positions.
As for making investment changes. I suspect all those holding oil producers right now are doing so because they expect the oil price to increase, and their oil shares to increase as a result.
If you are like me, that means picking the oil companies with the highest upside torque per share, with the lowest downside risk.
I can't think of one better than OBE.