kavern23 wrote: Rex...what is the problem YGR has...compared to BNE problems?
YGR was 1.93 on Feb 1, 2021 and 2.40 today....if YGR had such a bad 2022 why is share price up even with very low NG prices? Because 2022 was a stellar year...and I don't even own YGR, I not pumpin.
BNE was 7.83 Feb 1, 2021 and 6.44 today...BNE seems to have the problem and not YGR.
BNE has a host of problem on why share price is down over the year.
YGR is not as high as some would like do to factors out of their control...NYMEX is 2.60 right now. However I think YGR can still get good enough NG prices over 2023 to end Dec 2023 at a plus 3.50 share price. Only reason not buying is I think I can buy YGR at 1.80-2 in crash to alot fo these stocks. Having liquid cash is going to be key over next three months...a crash is coming.
YGR outlook is really good even if stock crashes temporaily. If a crsh comes and I can grab shares under 2 bucks...I absolef*ckinlutely will buy shares.
YGR is set up so well in that they didnt stop drilling in the fall like BNE did. BNE production in 2023 is going to peak right when prices are likely in the sh*tter. Every month oil stays over 80 is a bonus right now. YGR is taking advantage of it. BNE is desperate one running two rigs trying to catch up.
Here is the problem when comparing the two, which company is better suited if oil is 65-70 and NG is 3.50-4 cad. YGR operating costs are lower...they can handle it much better than BNE can.
And in really bad scenario, YGR can just stop drilling and wait it out. I dont think BNE can do this easily.
BNE is going to a 125m capital budget....same as YGR....that's a big increase for BNE compared to 2022. But YGR has shown they can survive in this playground.
Unfort things take time and wells take time but next 11 wells to be drilled are in ferrier.
Scariest thing about BNE and we dont know this, is drained same asset for decades without buying anything as their were fighting for suvivial with banks. BNE has lots of catching up to do. I hope BNE does well but not a fan.
TheRexmember wrote: Yes still in BNE. Buying more at these prices. OBE looking like a good entry point again too.
i think you have it backwards Kav. YGR has to drill hard and BNE can maintain production with much less drilling. BNE has over 7000 barrels of oil production plus gas liquids with a decline rate that is much lower than YGR. YGR has about 3000 barrels of oil the last time I looked.
it is why BNE paid off 149 million in debt last year in twelve months. Not sure if YGR managed 75 million or not? The production misses and gas weight are a problem right now.
BNE reduced ARO a lot in the last two years. Basically 10 years plus of drilling. They added 12 wells to grow exit production. Free cash flow of 100 million at 85 dollar oil is a pretty good asset base.
I agreed with a lot of what you say on ATH as par as cash flow metrics go. A tiny pop in oil prices and they generate a huge amount of cash flow. The facilities are paid for, no net debt and a few hundred thousand acres of land Partnered up with a super major. The drama is mostly behind ATH now it is mostly price risk you are fighting. The drama at YGR is quarterly. Still can't believe the share price is below 2.50 after all that short covering. I held it 5 years Kav. Now I only trade it.