Scenarios and speculationNever before that I can recall have I posted about future prices, other than commenting on outlooks that have put forward by others. But today I am willing to try.
Here we can build from the recent SWS financial analysis.
They come up with a NPV of $ 8 billion US for ONCY in the mBC indication, assuming they are licensed to sell by 2026-27 and that ONCY somehow finances the trial. They do not show any analysis for dilution or borrowing cost for that trial AFAIK. That is of course based on some notion of market price and sales amounting to 5 Bill a year if CF is correct.
This assumes everything goes perfectly in terms of a trial and approval. Best case scenario.
Let us now consider panc and then everything else. Let us assume that if everything goes perfectly, somehow ONCY is licensed to sell pela to Roche into a combo, and it too is worth what was estimated for mBC. Of course this is a huge simplification and perhaps an underestimate.
Let us now consider everything else including the colorectal combos and well as all possible uses of pela as an adjunct for various types of I/O applications, the names of which I cannot recall or spell.
Let us assume all these other applications are also worth $8 bil in NPV.
This amounts to $24 bill US. Let us assume some big pharma like Roche would be willing to pay ONCY half that, that is split the returns, in order to get our patent for the pela virus.
Why would they do that? Look at their strategic plans. Look at what Tencentriq gives them now, which is 12% of the global pharma revenues. And finally think about the synergistic value for everything else they hold. Tencentriq is licensed to be used in a vast array of indications. There are many many complementary applications of pela which expands existing markets because more people will benefit and avoids treating people unlikely to be helped. There is the whole cancer vaccine future that seems very appropriate for ONCY.
So it is not too hard to spin scenarios in which, if everything goes well for ONCY and pela provides benefits at the scale seen in the Goblet and Aware trials and well as the AN data, that ONCY is worth a lot of money.
You can simply make scenarios that builds off the published SWS analysis, and multiple those results by some factor (I used 3), allow for sharing of profits among the old and new owner, and you get great numbers, assuming all continues to go well.
Turning to the worst case scenarios, which would be that future trials do not support licensing in panc and mBC , and perhaps at best pela is useful as an adjuvant in limited contexts, I would think the minimum value for the market cap would be on the order of $500-600 mil. Remember they have $ roughly $500 mill in accumulated tas losses. This market cap would be on the of $10 a share.
These are scenarios, not predications. These are my own blue sky opinions. You all need to due your own research and form your own opinions.