RE:Sustainable dividend at FFO of $166m/q in 2023?Yasch,
In working with your 2023 framework, if I speculate some rounded number-assumptions such as :
- 2023 production approx. 110k BOE/d average... 57,500 NGas & 14,000 Liquids
- $3 Ngas avg., including hedges and spot, (clearly a reference-base number only) plus 1.145 heat content
- $80 Liquids avg. (high risk number to be monitored)
Peyto would appear, under these assumptions, to generate Revenues in the order of 1.2 Billion for NGas and 0.4 Billion for Liquids, which I anticipate being approx. $275 million more that Year 2022 Revenues (when they are announced).
This
additional $275 million (possible) Revenue in 2023 would have approx. ($215M - $103M =
$112M) extra pay-out in the 2023 Dividends based on current rate, which would generate about
$163 million (order of magnitude) extra for debt service compared to year 2022 debt service.
If this simple reference picture is flawed, I will appreciate corrections,
Peace,
Good decision-making to All,
ElJ