Onc buyout / licensing / partnership deal…..Date. Some quick history.
when the A.N. Deal/ parnership was announced. There was not a hint, peep or even furthest stretch of imagination that any deal was in the works.
I owned shares then. I bought a few weeks before. Seeing the exact trend I see now. Low price, low volume, with very consistent end of day support.
In my observation ( then). My opinion/ conclusion etc, was that the price was being supported for some reason.
The news came out, the SP went up.
The Pfizer " 90 day exclusivity & trial cost sharing" which many underestimate its value. Likewise. No clue, until the news came out.
They did say in teleconferance that the negotiations for that " deal" took months of D.D.
pfizer was not about to risk it's drug & good name without a very deep dive into the existing data, management etc.
Bringing us to TODAY....
let's assume for point of discussion there are negotiations going on for a buyout.....
I garentee even those in negotiations can not give a date,of when the deal will be approved by BOD, packaged & presented to shareholders.
Even a very simple process of selling a house. You list your house with a realtor.
when will the deal close?
One day, week, month. Many months?
I have seen/ heard of very simple house sale transactions held up at last minute due to a co- owner not being available to sign for " two more days. "
Even a simple deal like that is done, when it's done. Not before & 100% unpredictable.
if you insist on a date I can say with reasonable certainty, before end of June.
Could be announced tomorrow, or anytime up to & including end of June.
Why that date? Glad you asked.
By mid June Bracelet results will be outside of 90 day exclusively & the add-on update if data they have asked for.
Also, Onc must have either a pharma deal, or " bought deal" financing by mid year.
so if you are looking for a black & white answer as to when, sorry that answer does not & can not exist.
Ask anyone in any sales job, what so ever. I was in sales for 3 years with an international blue chip multi billion $$ company.
Every quarter we would have "presentation updates"; of order closings.
That being to plan workflow, cash flow etc etc.
We would have 70% , 80% & pie in the sky categories of liklyhood of deals closing. " within a quarter".
meaning best case to predict within the next 3 months, what can we expect.
Even the V.P. Of the company knew enough an exact date is impossible to predict.The question was never asked as it was simply impossible to answer.
BTW, the quarterly predictions changed every quarter. Some opportunities moved up to 90%++ likelihood of closing within next month.
Some 8o% stuff fell off the page. The company expected to modernize, was bought out & the new owners had differnt plans.
Some pie in the sky stuff escalated to a Purchse order over a fax, because the client neeed to spend month end $$ or loose that allocation.
I personally worked on an automation deal, that was in place when I took over. ( discussions). I was working with client for months. That deal finally closed with mutiple additions @ double the price range I was working on....Two years after I left the company.
My point. The more complicated, the longer things can take.
a simple house sale "when will it be sold"...?
All of the indicators say Onc has a product that has proven science. They have said they are looking for partners.
They have in- place trials with mutiple large pharma.
Unless something changes big time, they must have something announced by mid year. At the latest.
Best I can come up with.
BTW. Onc management & any aquiring company know that as well.
I expect as a minimum we will have better clues early March, when they give year end update.
Other than that.
have a great week all.