Questionable investmentFact: Largo sold one battery only. Ever! This one sale had happened in summer of 2021. The company is unable to deliver this one battery up to the present day. It was scheduled to be commissioned by Q4-2022, was postponed to Q1-2023 and postponed again to Q2-2023 just recently. Does anybody consider this kind of performance encouraging for potential customers?
With regard to projections based on the "Guidehouse" papers one has to bear in mind this so-called "analysis" was paid for by Vanitec, an organisation whose sole objective is to "promote the use of vanadium bearing materials" representing the interests of a number of member companies including Glencore, Wogen Resources, TNG Ltd, VanadiumCorp, Avalon (Now Invinity), U.S. Vanadium, Black Rock Metals, Duferco, etc. This paper's "findings" are by no means neutral but extremely favourable for Vanitec, its members, and the Vanadium industry as a whole.
Each and every piece of "research" presented by Vanadium producers, juniors or their respective cheerleaders refers to the lofty Guidehouse numbers as this very chat board demonstrates. A few youngsters pretent they couldn't see through it and continuously argue using either Guidehouse's figures or 3rd party "analysis" based on them.
As a matter of fact you cannot consume more Vanadium than is produced. Accordingly, if VRFBs require a doubling of the worl's Vanadium output till 2030, there are no more than two options: 1) Supply has to double, too, or 2) these VRFBs cannot be built. As simple as that. In order for new supply to come online, investment in new production capacity has to be incentivised. This requires a Vanadium price of at least $10, better $12+. Right now V2O5 is priced at $9.60. Of course Vanadium hopefuls like TNG Ltd. (a Vanitec member, TNG.AX), Australian Vanadium (AVL.AX), Technology Metals (TMT.AX), Vanadium Resources (VR8.AX), King River, Flinders Mines, Vanadiumcorp (VRB.TSXV), Nevada Vanadium, Ferroalloy Resources (FAR.L) tout their "world class", "first cost quartile" (LOL!) projects as all juniors do. They all display unrealistic opex figures only to see them debunked by reality, should they ever become actual producers.
Even current producers are unable to predict future production costs in the short term. Just 12 months ago Largo issued 2022 cost guidance of $3.30/lb (midpoint). Within just a couple of months this guidance had to be revised twice to $4.30 (midpoint) at the end of 2022 and yet again in January of 2023. It now sits at $5.05 (midpoint), a jaw-dropping +53% compared previous year guidance. With this in mind, how credible are production cost figures presented by juniors in their feasibility studies? Paid-for studies that these companies rely upon in their attempt to "trick" a bank into financing their project! They're all pie in the sky.
The VRFB marketing story is being told for more than 10 years now. I'm bored when I see it rehashed over and over again. Have a look at the charts of Redflow and Invinity, two VRFB manufactureres:
https://stocknessmonster.com/charts/rfx.asx/
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/IES/invinity-energy-systems-plc/company-page
Do these charts indicate VRFB is a winner?
Also have a look at the 2-year charts of Bushveld Minerals and Largo Resources, two primary Vanadium producers:
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/BMN/bushveld-minerals-limited/company-page
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LGO/chart?p=LGO
Does this look like a winner?
Bottom line: The marketing story of increased demand and higher prices triggered by the VRFB technology is being spread all the time. For many years. As it turns out though, VRFBs don't sell. Today the average battery storage project size is about 1/2 GWh. The few VRFBs that are being built (ex China) are less than 1% of it in size. Frankly, VRFBs are losing out. (China is another story as the country boasts vast Vanadium resources and is builing its own vertically integrated, INDEPENDENT Vanadium supply chain. That's why V prices do not at all react to announcements of huge VRFBs being built there.) Should VRFBs at some point in time start to sell in quantities, it would likely become a trend for decades. Accordingly, there will be plenty of time to invest in the companies involved once it HAS started. No need to rush. I’d keep an eye on it and once it gets going, act accordingly. But don't get suckered by cheerleaders rehashing an old marketing story that maybe never comes to fruition.