RE:Oil PriceThe way you're thinking makes sense, and I do agree oil could quickly get to the $120 ish level, but at that level we would see SPR releases (oil drops), then the market realizes that old fix isn't enough this time....and up we go.
Market crash for sure between $150 and $200... but debt gone and 30% + div yields would support OBE I would think.
As for the hedged, most oil producers sell calls, and do not have to face "margin calls" when the price moves against them, it becomes a MTM non cash loss.
Just like 2021 and 1st half of 2022 for some producers, some nasty looking income statements, but still gushing cash flow, and no concern about hedging losses threatening liquidity.
Unhedged will of course capture the upside and pay off debt / increase dividends and share buybacks more quickly than badly hedged.
If hedges worked in oil like they do for some coal producers, SOIL.V would have been bankrupt by June 2022, along with many hedged out for years.
So, more upside in unhedged, but no reason to avoid hedged co's out of solvency issues.