RE:$20 target
I also think that $20 is attainable, however it really looks like sentiment is shifting away from O&G stocks.
A while ago I compared the analysts' target prices for ARC with the actual prices a year later. I was essentially trying to determine their accuracy in forecasting share price based on financials, etc.
While at times they got close, by and large analyst predictions were about 75% of actual, when accounting for the 12 month time difference. This certainly was the case for ARC.
I realize there is a season effect, but this was fairly consistent.
I see this is currently occuring with TOU as well. The financials are great, the stock price doesn't reflect this. Some people blame Terry for this, but the reality is he is clearly delivering on performance so I don't think it is a factor. Mike Rose certainly isn't the one dragging down TOU.
My take on this is that things are shifting where fewer investment houses or everyday investors are willing to invest in O&G at the current time. That doesn't mean that the tide won't shift when they realize the true role that this industry plays in today's energy sector. Or when they want great financial returns.
I think the key is to be patient and take the analyst predictions as a guide of trajectory, not as actual dollars to take to the bank.
GLTA
A long term ARC stock holder.