RE:"Construction Ready" folliesExcuse me - but growing outstanding share count 370% in 12 years is ridiculous.
Sabina currently has 567M shares outstanding so you're saying in 2011 they had 160M shares so they added 400M shares over 12 years????
WRN share count in 2011 was right at 100M. Now right at 160M.
You're trying to compare that to WRN share count growth we could expect over the next 4-5 years to get Casino to same place as Goose? I don't think so and you are WAY off base on that!
Now that you bring up Sabina --- great ---- let's go thru some metrics to compare valuations to Casino (Goose FS vs. Casino FS). Yes, i realize Sabina might have other assets....but i'm confident Casino future phases WAY more than offsets George and other metal content within Sabina! So let's just compare the 2 assets that have FS completed and not worry about the fact that Casino FS is only 1/3 the asset.
Firstly, please note page 29 of Sabina corp presentation where they show SBB at about 43% P/NAV and WRN at about 38% in January 2023. How they show SBB at 43% P/NAV when trading at $1.4 or $600M usd when FS had $800M is beyond me. Seems like it should have been 0.7 and now should be 1.0 since $800M acquistion price with NPV at about same USD. Then how in the world do they show
WRN at 38% P/NAV???? I mean even in Jan when we were close to $2usd that would have been only about 18% and now more like 14%. Then SBB uses 5% discount/$1600 Au, we use 8%/$1700 Au..so no where near apples to apples comparision. Should be another $0.5B added to our NPV normalizing i believe. If we can get same valuation level relative to NPV that Sabina did waiting another 5 years....sign me up! There is no way we will grow share count like they did! Anyway, thanks for the additoinal example that shows WRN so far undervalued relative to other transactions!
| | Sabina | Casino | |
| Sabina NPV | $ 0.8 | $ 1.7 | Billion |
| Discount | 5% | 8% | |
| Payback | 3 | 3 | Years |
| Au | $ 1,600 | $ 1,700 | |
| IRR | 30% | 20% | |
| Mine Life | 15 | 27 | Years |
| Total Mined Au | 3.4 | 5.7 | Moz |
| Total AuEq | 3.4 | 21.6 | Moz |
| At Spot revenue | $ 6.0 | $ 40 | Billion |
| Acquistion price | $ 0.8 | ???? | Billion |