The problem with BirchIs that they're too small and too heavily weighted, dependant on NG. As the former is the case with most mid cap Canadian eps, it's a size & economy of scale issue. They desperately need to get much bigger if the want to compete.....and survive in North America. I've been calling for masive restructuring & consolidation in the Candian Sector for the last five years. Something which the Americans did quite quickly, drastically and efficiently during the last down turn in the industry BUT the Canadians did not. They just sat on the sidelines doing nothing hoping that disaster would blow over soon. Which it did, eventually, but the consequences & lasting effects did not and continued to linger on. And here we are......
I don't visit this board much like i use to in the past, but i do pop in once in a blue moon to see what folks are talking about. And i did notice some interesting discussion on their debt. While i understand those that say that debt is an issue in the sector, i disagree with them pointing the finger at Birch mgmt saying they didn't do anything. I don't think most folks here truly know Birchcliff's past and how much more heavily indebted they were in the past. To the toon of nearly 3/4 of a B. So.....saying that mgmt "didn't to anything or enough" isn't only inaccurate but quite deserving. IMHO, Birch mgmt did something which most Canadian ep's couldn't do, which is being laser focused on their masive debt load and reducing it quite substantially over the last 3 years. So like i said in past comments, well done!
Going back to the size issue, I assume that Birch mgmt KNOWS they need to get bigger, supersize and get ready for the coming NEW North American energy market. Anything less is a waste and will seal their fate in not a good way. As for what they can do to actually get bigger, they have several options at their disposal. Now that production is at levels which are meaningful and their debt under control and nearly extinguished. I see Birch as an agressive aquirer for now, and until that changes, that's the premise i will work under. That being the case, a great target for them would be acquiring someone like Kelt. Birch is twice the size of Kelt, so any merger of the two would result in Birch as a the surviving entity. And also Kelt seems to be looking for an exit as well. There are some other decent accretive targets like Kelt, but for me, Kelt is the most accreitve one for Birch.
That's all the commentary i have for now, and i hope i've helped some folks that have been criticiizing Birch realize that they've come a long way in the past few years. In addition, please note that after you've read these comments, it would be a good idea to save them quickly if you find them useful to you. The reason for this? There's a few bad, disgrunteled players (whom i've crucified btw for spreading nonsense & being ignorant of the industry) on SH who are folllowing me around, trolling on every board i go, And they have an inside man at SH, a rouge moderator acting on their behalf, by deleting almost every comment i post. As they've done with several boards including the Kelt forum.
So i STRONLGY advise to save this, if you wish to refer back to it some day. I cannot guarantee this will be here tomorrow or in the next few weeks. SH isn't the useful platform it use to be and the massive censorship & abuse of the mods is killing what ever is left. So make sure you're aware of this and take steps.
GLTA