RE:BMODibah - As flakey as the markets are, even very strong results like TRP posted often cause SP to drop. I just look at it as a chance to buy cheap. My problem is I burned the last of my dry powder when TRP got down around 53. I still favour TRP and PPL, own no Enbridge - just too much ongoing drama with Enbridge and it can never seem to hold above 57 for very long. Worth trading it on the swings but gave it up as a long term hold.
Dibah420 wrote: Candidly, I was expecting to see red today. But the mkt seems to agree with Pham.
CEO states that the impairment charge ($650 CAD?) for the Kansas spill does not include recoveries from insurance. Any guesses as to $$?
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February 14, 2023 | 07:40 ET~ TC Energy TRP-TSX TRP-NYSE
Rating Outperform Price: Feb-13 $55.64 Target $64.00 Total Rtn 21%
First Glance: Solid Q4/22 and 3.3% Dividend Increase
Bottom Line: TRP reported Q4/22 adj. EPS of $1.11, close to consensus of $1.10 (BMO at $1.15) supported by an adj. EBITDA beat ($2,683M vs. consensus of $2,578M and our $2,660M estimate) offset by higher effective tax rate.
The dividend was increased 3.3% (new yield of 6.7%), in line with expectations and TRP initiated directional 2023 EPS guidance (modestly higher).
Net, expect a modest positive price reaction. Conf. call today at 8:30 a.m. ET; Tel: 1-800-319-4610.
Key Points Canadian Gas Pipelines. Adj. EBITDA of $768M was above our $727M estimate (Q4/21 of $674M) supported by NGTL rate base expansion and Cdn. Mainline incentive earnings. U.S. Gas Pipelines. Adj. EBITDA of $1,141M came in slightly below our $1,155M estimate (Q4/21 of $1,032M) on weaker-than-expected contribution from Columbia Gas, Columbia Gulf, and ANR, with the latter driven by a regulatory deferral related to the ANR uncontested rate settlement. Mexico Gas Pipelines. Adj. EBITDA of $211M was close to our $209M estimate (Q4/21 of $151M). Liquids Pipelines. The segment’s adj. EBITDA of $364M was ahead of our $330M estimate (Q4/21 of $380M) mainly due to better-than-expected contribution from Keystone, partially offset by weaker Liquids Marketing. TRP expects the Keystone oil spill to cost ~US$480M but could recover potentially all through insurance. Power & Storage. Adj. EBITDA of $203M was below our $255M estimate (Q4/21 of $168M) due to weaker-than-expected contribution from Canadian Power ($72M vs. our $150M) as a result of negative trading results, more than offsetting robust Alberta power prices (reached $312/MWh in December). Corporate, Interest, and Taxes. Higher net interest expense ($594M vs. our $579M estimate) and effective tax rate (18% vs. our 14% estimate) more than offset lower Corporate overhead (-$4M vs. our -$15M estimate). 2022 guidance beat and initiated directional 2023 EPS guidance. Full-year 2022 EPS of $4.30 was slightly ahead of management's guidance for earnings to be consistent with $4.27 in 2021, with EBITDA of ~$9.9B (+6% YoY) also ahead of 4% YoY growth guidance. For 2023E, TRP expects earnings to be modestly higher than 2022, while the 5-7% adj. EBITDA YoY growth guidance was reiterated. TRP added US.5B in U.S. natural gas projects (Gillis Access extension, Ventura XPress), with total $34B secured growth program and reaffirmed $5B-plus asset sales for this year.