RE:RE:RE:RE:Posted on LinkedIn Are you encouraging me to sell my firm's sizable holdings? That is not in anyone's best interest, right? While tempting at times to just blow our holdings out and be done with this, it likely would not be the optimal scenario for my clients. I can still see a path to future success with this stock, but I have no illusions that it will not be a bumpy path. The best case scenario mostly relies on THTX's efforts in cancer for providing some significant upside and we should know more aboiut the chances of that soon. But they will have to basically start from scratch and so the timeline to success is long and there is no guarantee of success. But if there is success, it would likely be well worth waiting for.
There should be significant upside just from the legacy drugs from these very low levels - say up to $2-$3 - if they can keep those growing at a nice rate and not become more indebted in the process - and that alone is a reason to hold on, but the legacy drugs hard to get real excited about other than for a rebound to a more normal valuation level.
So, let's hear what the news is on cancer and then how they plan to manage their cash situation if there is a future for cancer, which that interview published yesterday highlighted there is a future.
One risk to any potential upside for us long term shareholders is that something good ultimately happens with cancer but the money raised to make it happen really dilutes us, taking a considerable amount of the benefits off the table for long term shareholders like ourselves. There likely would be still healthy benefits for us, but it is hard to see how we would be able to enjoy all the benefits of cancer success right now as it costs money to achieve those successes. With the release of the financial results coming on the last possible day and the pulling down of the corporate presentation something, perhaps several things, of signficance will likely happen in the next two weeks. The situation sure calls for things of significance to happen. I doubt we will like all that might happen since THTX is in a bad spot and its good options mostly evaporated with the cancer pause.
Other scenarios could include selling the company to someone who can benefit from the accumulated tax losses or to a financial engineer who wants to see if they can squeeze a good return out of it based on optimizing the sales and costs on the legacy drugs. For now, however, it seems best to gather more info before making any big decisions. Hopefully, poor THTX will catch a break for once and make it easier to see a way out of this unfortunate mess.