The big mistakeWhat did we learn last year from the SP behavior?
Just a reminder that the Bombardier's results were above the expectation at each quarter last year. They increased the year's end objectives and the 2025 one's. More the FCF jumped with the better conditions obtained from the new booking.
But the SP went down from 55$ (2,29$ pre-split) to 18$ for a recovering in the two last quarters.
Debating or arguing that the results are sparkling is useless.
Results is the picture of the past. Like driving with the rear mirror.
The stock market is an anticipation game.
Last week, Management told us that they are sticking with the seasonality of their operations. The first two quarters will be modest with few deliveries, cash consumption and a loss followed by a solid year end. The whole year will show better results than this year but it will become an evidence only in the second half of the year.
So, what do we have in front of us ?
Is there a catalyst for a surge?
Monday, my hope were high with a debt reimbursment (I post about that monday) but despite a large amount of 500M$ reimbursed, nothing happened on the SP. A flat day with a closing down by 1$.
It was anticipated.
The only next catalyst will be investor's day. Is there anyone thinking that their positive next objectives are not anticipated ?
So, yesterday, I choose to freeze my profits selling the remaining options I had and deciding to sell a part of my shares. I will keep a substantial numer of shares. I am sure that the future is sparkling and I still positive for the long run. But, my opinion is that we could be in the 55$-62$ range for a couple of months with a 20% chances to be higher or lower. I could be wrong and if so I will benefit with the remaining shares I will have.
The key element for me was the absence of reaction from the market after the large 500 M$ debt reimbursment.
I made a beautifull run, my TFSA is 27% higher than at dec 31 despite the fact that I have other investment on them, preserving them is more important than trying to hit an home run the next month.
GLTA