RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:My two centsI appreciate this analysis. I think it underestimates the cashflow per store going forward for a couple reasons.
The main reason being, you're using 2009-2020 median which includes Addition Elle, Thyme Maternity, Hyba, Smart Set and Cassis banners. All of these banners were shut down over 2011-2019. Most recently management disclosed that the Thyme Maternity and Addition Elle brands were straight up losing money or slightly breakeven. Which I would assume was the case for the other locations they shutdown.
From 2010-2020 they went from 968 stores to 451 stores with a focus on shutting the unprofitable locations. This is why (plus online sales) that the revenue per location has gone from $1.1m to over $1.9m in the trailing 12 months. This 73% increase in revenue per store is at the same time that the average rent per square foot has decreased since 2019.
This is the main reason why I think they will do closer to $55m in free cashflow. (Roughly $70m in cashflow minus $15m in additions to PPE). The new management comp structure rewards operating profit per store and with that incentive I think this type of cashflow is definitely possible.
Even at a very low 10x free cashflow puts the stock at $11.25/share. I expect to be pleasantly surprised with Q4 earnings and have to revise my estimates higher.