RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:RE:NG NEWSTerribleEng wrote: Well this answer depends if you want your company speculating on the market.
If you believe that Peyto did the right thing by missing out on over $1B in profit due to hedges and now they are in the money...then yes you should sell out.
A hedge is a side bet. It has nothing to do with production and Peyto reports it as such. Producers should be lowering production if you are selling below your cost regardless of whether you are hedged or not. You can cash out at anytime and get your winning bet. Just because you are hedged at higher prices doesn't mean you are making money on your gas production. If you had hedged the forward market at $7 and now AECO is at $2.30, you can sell all your contracts out versus the futures curve and take the cash. If you don't take the cash you are stilling losing money on your production as this is not contingent on you delivering anything. They are separate ideas and it shouldn't impact how you respond to market forces or spend capital.
The fact that firms who are hedged bring on production at a loss is an exercise in mental gymnastics that destroys shareholder value. They could spend the capital and delay starting up the wells...since they are getting paid regardless. If you pretend that spot price is zero... like it was in late 2017 and Peyto was hedged high, then this really illustrates the point of how stupid it is.
The fact is that shareholders complain all the time.
When hedges work, the company should have hedged more.
When hedges didn't work, the company should never have used them.
Goes back to original discussion, if shareholders don't like the hedging strategy, they are free to exit their holdings and buy a diff company.
Nobody here can guess with any certainty what the price of NG will average in any calendar year.
Hedging is prudent if done correctly.
You guys are staring at the rear view mirror at sundown, upset that Peyto didn't stop at A&W for burgers at noon.