Only Champion recording positive EPS from December But what about listed iron ore companies?
While the risk-on iron ore trade has been "robust", as Citi aptly put it, earnings per share (EPS) revisions for some of the country's favourite exposures to this commodity have been resoundingly negative (since mid-2022).
This includes BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue, with only Champion Iron (ASX: CIA) recording positive EPS momentum from December 2022.
"Generally, negative EPS revisions correlate with share price underperformance," Citi analysts explained.
"However, bellwether BHP is up 31% in the last six months. Expectations around China's re-opening have been a powerful sentiment driver with risk appetite (defined as the six-month move in iron ore versus six month move in share price) strongly positive for all the iron ore names over this period."
That said, there could be some upside to EPS at current spot prices, the broker explained.
"Running spot commodity prices and FX through our models for 2H FY23 results in approximately 80% of our mining coverage with EPS upgrades, with iron ore EPS up approximately 30% (spot vs base)," Citi analysts wrote.
"No doubt the risk-on trade that’s been evident is in part reflection of upside EPS risk at spot commodity pricing. BHP FY23 PE contracts to 8.7 times using spot prices versus a base case of 11.3 times."
A valuation sense check
Citi noted that Rio Tinto's price-to-book is currently trading in line with its long-term average, while BHP is trading slightly higher.
Return on equity is running at higher levels than usual, with BHP and Rio Tinto's return on equity in FY25 currently at 31% and 22% respectively at US$90 a ton.
Meanwhile, the broker believes that Fortescue Metals Group is currently trading at an approximately 17% premium, while Champion Iron is at a 24% discount