RE:My comments on KEY ourtlookExcellent summary, thank you. Used to own KEY, after selling some CVE (great share price growth, still minimal dividends) I started buying KEY few days ago also primarily for dividends as retired, now at 5% of portfolio.
For a bit more colour on dividend:
1) From investor Presentation Payout ratio target of 50-70% of DCF, for 2022A it's 65% (so could raise it 5/65 = 7.7% right now but waiting to get KAPS fully operational).
2) From investor Presentation "Aim to steadily grow dividend in-line with distributable cash flow (“DCF”) growth" which they don't forecast, but
3) From CC as highlighted "in the report that we expect to generate a 6% to 7% EBITDA growth out to 2025. So we certainly believe that, that's going to support long-term sustainable dividend growth. And I would add to you with the acquisition of KFS, that would put us probably more in the high end of that 6% to 7% range.
So my forecast earnings are current dividend yield of 6.3% PLUS ~7% growth in share price assuming no yield expansion = 13.3% which is great, never get too greedy.
Also with such much lower CapEx needs going forward, debt at bottom, and dividend raise constrained by payout ratio and DCF growth, I could see them implementing NCIB share buybacks for their extra cashflow (they added this statement on bottom of slide 7).
PS: Friend used to consult for them, said great mgmt/team and that they consider their dividend sacrosanct.