RE:I wouldn't count on itHey Mas, I think your numbers might be off. If I total your FCF it comes to 685 million/year. In the press release I thought they stated that FCF would nearly double, so closer to a billion.
I think the best thing I read yesterday was also from you. You stated the obvious that the whole deal really comes down to WTI. At todays rate it is a pretty good deal. If wti jumps $10 or more it is a great deal. If wti drops 10 bucks or more then not too good but as you said the SP would have gone down without the deal as well.
masfortuna wrote: I think the deal should and will go through. On a metrics level with production staying flat they should be at 140 million barrels in June 2024. Assuming that from the FCF they could buy 50 million shares or about 275 million CDN, it will take 6 years to payout the shares given out. Any increase in production and any additional funds allocated to the buyback will accelerate the elimination of the 300 million shares. Add the remaining fcf (225 million) for the divy (85 million) and the debt and we are looking at 13 years AT TODAY's LEVELS OF PRODUCTION. Any increase in wti pricing OR increased production drastically reduces the timeline to our preset share structure and debt. I say good deal although it appears to be a calculated risk on the direction of oil.