Artis Real Estate Investment Pref Shs Series E T.AX.PR.E

RE:Forecasting how 2023 plays out for Artis

[DZtrader]

The assumption of rates staying where they are now is a cr ap shoot. They appear to be heading higher in the U.S. Although the BOC has indicated a pause from here anything is possible. Both Canadian and U.S. 10 year yeilds have been edging higher, however the 2 year is where you want to concentrate on here even though it doesn't necessarily impact reits as much (having said that I believe Artis just renewed some debt for 2 years). Artis has debt in both Canadian and U.S. so becomes even harder to make accurate assumptions. Bottom line, factor in somewhat higher rates than current. With regards to the $350 M in dispositions, I think that is an opptomistic forecast. The market has softened there is no doubt about that. Given our crown jewels have already been sold it is unlikely they find buyers in this market unless they fire sale properties which I am not sure would be best route (but not entirely sure it wouldn't either). It has now become a long haul hold and will largely depend on execution going forward, which they have shown to be somewhat weak thus far. Debt managemeant is everything. They absolutely have to get out of the circus of buying other reits as it has thus far proven to be a fail. I am fortunate enough to have bought in low $9's and will likely exit this position when and if it nears there. I believe this now to be dead money and the set up I thought would materialize has now evaporated.