RE:Cobalt will still be in DemandJmho
I am dubious when I read articles from sources that cater to specific markets. For example, if you read an EV article from an Auto Magazine you are likely to read silly claims like 'EV's aren't as clean as we thought!" and "EV Fires causing concern!", etc. etc.
The article mentioned by MBAS has statements like: "Bedder believes investors shouldn't worry about the surge in cobalt-free cathode technologies such as LFP“, and "The market was forecasted to enter a small surplus in 2022, so it is not too surprising prices are ending the year lower".
So what is the truth? Since the article MBAS pointed us to, Cobalt is now down 34% more, we've learned there is a huge stockpile of Cobalt in the DRC https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/a-huge-stockpile-of-cobalt-looms-over-the-market, and the market will be in over supply into 2024. Additionally, Ford, Tesla, BYD, VW, and other's are making the transition to LFP and 4680 Cobalt Free batteries. And now GM is considering LFP as well. LFP will increase dramatically for the following reasons: 1) as the charging network increases, charging times decrease, and folks gain familiarity with EV's... range anxienty dimishes; 2) The cost difference is as high as 14K over LFP; 3) LFP batteries allows one to charge to 100% regularly, has less chance of fire, and can be packed more tightly.
Additionally, Cobalt are good for performance cars, but the huge volumes to come in this next wave of EV's will NOT be performance cars, rather low cost transportion. Automakers always start high end, and move to low end. And we are now moving to the low end. Tesla is fact created the Tesla 2 soon, which will be LFP, and will have a HUGE base.
So what do I think? I believe the massive stock pile in the DRC combined with the oversupply, will cap the prices of Cobalt for years. Additionally, everyone is making the transition away from Cobalt. However, there is an advantage to Cobalt with performance, so there will be higher end cars that use Cobalt as long as the prices are low enough.
So.... JRV will never pull much higher than 70 cents, and will be in the pennies as it is now until at least mid 2024.